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Canfax Report – for Nov. 11, 2010

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Published: November 11, 2010

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A cooling beef market and reduced domestic cattle slaughter pressured fed cattle prices lower.

The Canfax weighted average steer price for the week ending Nov. 5 was $93.92 per hundredweight, down $1.91, and heifers were $93.45, down $2.35.

That was about $12 higher than a year ago.

Domestic market ready supply is tight and packer supplies have tightened to about two weeks. Sales volume for the week was 16,416, down 3.5 percent from last year.

Weekly fed exports to Oct. 31 were under 12,000 head, down five percent from the previous week.

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Year-to-date exports are up about 25 percent.

The cash to futures basis narrowed to -$4.13 compared to -$7.09 the previous week. The basis was the second narrowest of the year. The last time it was this narrow at this time of year was 2003.

The Canadian dollar has moved into the 98-99 cent range compared to the 95-97 cent range it was at for most of the summer and fall.

Tight market ready supply will limit weakness for now, but further out, growing U.S. beef supplies and pressure from weak pork prices could pressure prices lower.

NON FED LOWER

D1, D2 cows were $45-$59 to average $52.59, down 52 cents. The D3 cow average was steady at $48.22.

Dressed cow prices were mostly steady at $103-$106.

Butcher bulls were $54-$72 to average $62.55, down $1.15.

Weekly non-fed slaughter exports to Oct. 23 rose 28 percent.

Non-fed prices are expected to trend lower as volumes increase seasonally.

FEEDER PRICES, VOLUME UP

Special calf sales increased auction volumes and aggressive buyer demand firmed feeder prices.

With harvest mostly complete, producers have the opportunity to gather cows and get calves into this bullish market.

Average steer prices were up $1.26 per cwt. from the week before and heifers were up more than $1.50.

Surplus forage in Alberta is fueling demand for light stockers, and prices rose. Mid-weight feeders up to 700 pounds generally traded more than $1 higher while steers heavier than 700 lb. were fairly flat.

Heifers 700 lb. and heavier rose $1-$2.

Larger calf volumes and a dwindling supply of yearlings are tightening weight range spreads.

Auction volume in Alberta totalled 95,827 head, up 29 percent from the week before and 13 percent higher than last year. Total sales so far this year are down two percent.

Weekly feeder exports to Oct. 23 of 2,061 head were up 10 percent from the week before but 51 percent lower than last year.

For the first time since before 2003, feeder calves are being imported from the U.S. into western Canadian feedlots. Imported feeder calf volumes are not yet available.

BEEF PRICE FALLS

U.S. Choice cutout closed at $159.01 per cwt., down $3.25, and Select closed at $151.90, down $2.06.

Weekly Canadian slaughter to Oct. 30 was up three percent.

The Montreal wholesale market for delivery was steady at $184-$186.

This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.

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