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Canfax Report – for Mar. 24, 2011

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Published: March 24, 2011

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FED CATTLE LOWER

The earthquake and nuclear crisis in Japan contributed to a volatile week in Chicago cattle futures, with prices limit down midweek.

The Canfax weighted average cash steer price for the week was $107.88 per hundredweight, down $1.07, and heifers were $106.39, down $2.

Sales volume of 15,144 head was 34 percent higher than the previous week.

A tight basis is keeping most cattle in Canada.

To account for currency volatility, Canfax has changed the way it calculates the weekly Canadian cash to futures basis.

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Agriculture ministers have agreed to work on improving AgriStability to help with trade challenges Canadian farmers are currently facing, particularly from China and the United States. Photo: Robin Booker

Agriculture ministers agree to AgriStability changes

federal government proposed several months ago to increase the compensation rate from 80 to 90 per cent and double the maximum payment from $3 million to $6 million

It is now based on the daily basis levels weighted by the number of cattle that traded on each respective day. For example, if 85 percent of the cattle traded on Wednesday at a basis level of $5 per cwt., and 15 percent traded on Thursday at a basis of $4, the weekly basis will be $4.85.

The basis narrowed to –$2.14 last week from -$5.77 the previous week.

Smaller slaughter volumes during the first half of March indicate packers have slowed production to try to improve profits. The slower kill might also be influenced by tight market-ready supply.

COW PRICE SOARS

Tight supplies and a year-to-date slaughter volume that is down 16 percent are supporting prices.

D1, D2 cows rose $3.12 per cwt. to average $76.41. D3 cows averaged $65.33.

Rail cows were steady at $139-$144. Butcher bulls rose $2.48 to $70-$95.

Weekly non-fed exports to March 3 were 3,758, down three percent.

FEEDERS HOLD GROUND

Strong buyer interest supported the feeder market.

Across all weights, average steer prices rose 44 cents per cwt., while heifers climbed 36 cents.

Steers and heifers 300-400 pounds rose $1.70-$2.40.

Steers 600-900 lb. rose 38 cents.

Interest in seed stock drove 600-700 lb. heifers $1.30 higher.

Steers and heifers 900 lb. and heavier edged lower.

Weekly feeder volumes totalled 42,771.

So far this year, auction volume totals 315,128 head, down 29 percent from last year.

Exports are down 32 percent so far this year.

Futures were sharply lower and Canfax thinks cash prices will edge lower.

BEEF PRICE RISES

Beef cut-out values surged higher, driven by strong demand and aggressively priced primal values.

Choice cutouts closed March 17 at $187.79 US per cwt., up $9.08. Select rose $9.69 to $186.67.

Weekly Canadian slaughter to March 12 was 50,869 head. So far this year, total slaughter volumes are at 542,441 head, down 10 percent.

Canadian AAA cutouts rose $5.85 Cdn to $175.10 per cwt. and AA rose $6.32 to $173.60.

Montreal wholesale prices for delivery this week were $2 higher at $195-$197

U.S. CATTLE ON FEED

There were 11.39 million cattle on feed in U.S. feedlots on March 1, up five percent from 2010 and 1.1 percent below the five year average.

The number in the monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report was expected. Feedlot numbers are expected to fall in coming reports because of the smaller calf crop.

Placements in February dropped 0.6 percent to 1.66 million and marketings were up 4.5 percent to 1.79 million.

This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.

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