Beef has a future as prices improve, and developing markets are poised to import more.
Global meat prices are increasing even when inflation is taken into account for the last 10 years, says the head of a European food research firm.
“A real price increase for beef has been pretty substantial, but the problem is for the consumer it becomes more expensive,” Richard Brown of the GIRA meat group said at the recent Canada Beef Inc. forum in Calgary.
He said more trade is expected to offer more beef, pork and poultry to a world in which incomes are improving and meat consumption is going up.
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Producers are improving their pastures and adopting better feeding and health programs, but other factors such as weather and an uncertain economy can throw off projections, he added.
Beef consumption is improving while global supplies have dropped.
Brown said there was a 500,000 tonne drop in beef production from last year and probably another 300,000 decline will be noted this year.
There are fewer cattle worldwide, with the greatest drop in the United States, the European Union and the Middle East.
He said there are few places in the world where more beef could be produced. Canada, the U.S. and South America could produce more cattle, but growth will be relatively modest.
Brown said trade patterns show the world’s largest exporters are Australia, the United States, Brazil, India and Canada, although the largest exporters are not necessarily the largest producers. Canadian production inventories represent two percent of the world’s production.
Canadian domestic consumption hovers around a million tonnes per year, and the rest is exported.
Brown said consumption in the U.S is also flat, but its export programs have surpassed the previous record set in 2003. The country exported 1.26 million tonnes last year, with Japan and Canada the favoured destinations.
There are some new opportunities, but different products are desired for areas such as North Africa and the Middle East.
These regions tend to buy low value meat such as buffalo from India, but they will buy higher priced cuts from other places.
Brown said the largest importers are the U.S., Middle East-North Africa, Russia and Japan. Analysts such as GIRA are projecting consumption growth in China, Middle East-North Africa, the U.S., Mexico and India.
The EU has emerged as a significant net importer of beef since 2008.
This could be an interesting market for Canada, but past opportunities have been dashed because meeting the EU requirements for hormone free and other specifications were difficult to meet.
“The economy has been hideous and beef demand has been shaky,” Brown said.
Europe once imported large amounts of cheap beef from Brazil, but the trade stopped when the South American country did not comply with individual traceability requirements and guarantee of disease control. The European Commission said Brazilian beef is not allowed into Europe until this is improved.
“For North America, the people who will really benefit from trading into these interesting import markets are the ones who listen to exactly what their customers want,” he said.
Export reliant countries such Uruguay, Denmark and New Zealand listen carefully to their customers and give them what they want. If it means slowing down production lines to supply them, they do it.
Brown said Canadians need to be patient and wait for the euro to recover because there are opportunities there.
“I never dreamt that the EU would be a net importer of beef,” he said.
