Canola rose Thursday while soybeans fell again and wheat rose on forecasts for as much as 6 ½ inches of rain in Oklahoma in the next few days.
Early signs are the -5C and lower temperatures early this week in southern Saskatchewan did not cause that much damage.
See the story: Frost damage appears minimal in southern Sask.
Also, Greg Simpson of Simpson Seeds at Moose Jaw, Sask., where the temperature dipped below -7C early this week, today said his lentils appear to be undamaged.
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While soybean futures were down on increasing production forecasts in Brazil and Argentina, soy oil rose, supported by rising crude oil values.
That helped support canola as did lingering questions about frost damage in the Western Prairies.
There is a possibility that traders also took notice of Agriculture Canada’s latest monthly supply and demand outlook that lowered 2015-16 canola carryout to a tight 500,000 tonnes from 1.4 million in the April report.
Agriculture Canada simply has changed its seeded acreage number from its own forecast of 20.76 million acres down to reflect Statistics Canada’s seeding intentions report that came out April 23.
The StatsCan number is 19.4 million acres.
Agriculture Canada also trimmed its yield forecast to 34 bushels an acre, down from 34.26 bu.
That resulted in a production forecast of 14.925 million tonnes, down about a million tonnes from its previous forecast of 16 million.
Agriculture Canada also had to lower its carryout forecast for the current crop year to 950,000 tonnes from 1.45 million to reflect the advanced pace of exports to date.
So now Agriculture Canada sees total 2015-16 supply at 16 million tonnes, down 1.575 million tonnes from its April forecast, which was getting quite out of date given the pace of exports and the new StatsCan seeding intentions survey.
That tightness of supply is helping canola avoid the downdraft caused by soybeans.
Soybeans were pressured lower as private Brazilian forecaster Agroconsult raised its estimate of the country’s 2014-15 crop to 96.1 million tonnes from its previous forecast of 95.8 million.
Argentina’s government raised the forecast for its soybean crop by one million tonnes to 60 million.
Poor U.S. weekly exports weighed on soymeal prices, which closed lower for the third session in a row, Reuters reported.
Soyoil futures edged higher on a late round of bargain buying. The crude oil rally added support.
Wheat rose on short covering and worries about forecasts for more rain in Texas and Oklahoma. As much as 6 ½ inches of rain are expected in Oklahoma over the next five days.
For a map of the five-day U.S. rain forecast click here.
The market is also talking about forecasts for dry weather in Russia and the dryness in western Canada.
Crops in Europe though look excellent.
And Agriculture Canada’s adjustments to reflect the Statistics Canada seeding intentions report and the export pace to date resulted in it increasing its 2015-16 forecasts for year end durum and wheat stocks in Canada.
Durum rose to one million tonnes from 800,000 in April and non durum stocks rose to four million tonnes from 3.6 million in April.
Rising wheat futures and short covering helped corn futures to climb higher. Stronger than expected weekly U.S. corn exports also supported corn.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.74 to US$60.72 per barrel. Falling U.S. stocks of crude oil lifted the price as did concerns about the increase in fighting in Iraq.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US81.96 cents, up from 81.89 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2201.
Stronger oil prices helped the TSX composite close up 130.78 points or 0.87 percent at 15,203.61.
The S&P 500 gained 4.97 points, or 0.23 percent, to end at 2,130.82 points, edging out its previous record close of 2,129.2 from Monday.
The Dow Jones industrial average, barely changed, dipping 0.34 point at 18,285.74.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 19.05 points, or 0.38 percent, to 5,090.79, just short of its record close of 5,092.08 on April 24.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2015 462.60 +4.10 +0.89%
Canola Nov 2015 455.30 +4.10 +0.91%
Canola Jan 2016 455.10 +4.90 +1.09%
Canola Mar 2016 455.10 +5.90 +1.31%
Canola May 2016 455.40 +6.70 +1.49%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015 222.00 +3.00
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 224.00 +3.00
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 224.00 +3.00
Durum Wheat Jul 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 303.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2015 191.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 177.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2015 182.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2015 938.5 -2.75 -0.29%
Soybeans Aug 2015 929.75 -2 -0.21%
Soybeans Sep 2015 920.25 -0.5 -0.05%
Soybeans Nov 2015 918.5 -1.25 -0.14%
Soybeans Jan 2016 925.5 -1.5 -0.16%
Soybeans Mar 2016 931 -2.25 -0.24%
Soybean Meal Jul 2015 304.1 -0.4 -0.13%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 301 +0.1 +0.03%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015 298.6 +0.1 +0.03%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015 32.25 +0.05 +0.16%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 32.3 +0.07 +0.22%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 32.32 +0.06 +0.19%
Corn Jul 2015 365 +5 +1.39%
Corn Sep 2015 371.5 +4.75 +1.30%
Corn Dec 2015 382.25 +5 +1.33%
Corn Mar 2016 392.75 +4.75 +1.22%
Corn May 2016 400 +5 +1.27%
Oats Jul 2015 244.25 +3.25 +1.35%
Oats Sep 2015 250 +3 +1.21%
Oats Dec 2015 258.5 +3 +1.17%
Oats Mar 2016 264.25 +2.75 +1.05%
Oats May 2016 271 +2.75 +1.03%
Wheat Jul 2015 522 +9 +1.75%
Wheat Sep 2015 529.5 +9.5 +1.83%
Wheat Dec 2015 542.5 +9 +1.69%
Wheat Mar 2016 555.75 +8 +1.46%
Wheat May 2016 563.75 +7.75 +1.39%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 578.25 +10 +1.76%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 589.25 +10.5 +1.81%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 602.5 +9.75 +1.64%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 615.25 +9.25 +1.53%
Spring Wheat May 2016 621.5 +7.25 +1.18%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 557.75 +12.75 +2.34%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 567.75 +12.75 +2.30%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 583.75 +13.5 +2.37%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 595.5 +13.25 +2.28%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 603 +13 +2.20%
