Weather drives canola and wheat higher

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Published: May 10, 2011

Canola and wheat futures closed stronger on Tuesday, supported by rain in the eastern Prairies and drought worries in the southern U.S. and Western Europe.

The rain will further delay seeding in Canada, which is already a couple of weeks behind normal.

However, sunshine dominated western Saskatchewan and Alberta, encouraging seeding there.

On Monday the Canadian Wheat Board estimated only three percent for all crops had been completed, compared to typical progress of almost 40 percent by this time in most years.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will give is official estimate of the winter wheat crop on Wednesday. It will also update its stocks numbers in the report.

In Monday’s crop condition report, USDA lowered the condition of the winter wheat crop.

The amount of crop considered good to very good declined to 33 percent from 34 percent the week before. Last year it was 66 percent good to excellent at this point.

In the same report, USDA said that 40 percent of the corn crop had been seeded, compared to the five-year average of 59 percent.

In spring wheat, only 22 percent had been seeded, compared to the five-year average of 61 percent.

Soybeans were seven percent planted, down from the average 17 percent.

Dry weather remains a concern in Western Europe. Dry weather concerns are also mounting in western Australia as seeding approaches there.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola May 11   $564.70, up $8.30

Canola Jul 11   $573.70, up $4.80

Canola Nov 11  $567.20, up $3.90

Canola Jan 12   $574.30, up $3.50

The previous day’s best basis was $18 under the July contract according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.

The May contract’s 14-day Relative Strength Index was 44. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.

Western Barley May 11 $200 unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans May 11   $13.40, up 5.0 cents

Soybeans Jul 11   $13.38, up 3.0

Soybeans Nov 11   $13.225, up 3.0

Corn May 11   $7.06, up 1.5

Corn Dec 11   $6.5275, down 4.75

Oats May 11   $3.47, up 2.0

Oats Dec 11   $3.67, up 2.0

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat May 11   $9.71.0, up 11.0 cents

Spring Wheat Jul 11   $9.5925, up 14.5

Spring Wheat Dec 11   $9.715, up 12.25

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.33 to $103.88 US per barrel, supported by worries that Mississippi flooding will affect refineries at the Gulf of Mexico and on surprising strong Chinese trade data for April.

The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0406 US, down from $1.0351 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 96.10 cents Cdn.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index closed down 35.07 points, or 0.26 percent, at 13,642.06.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 index rose 10.87 points, or 0.81 percent, to close at 1,357.16.

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