By Ros Krasny
WASHINGTON, Nov 10 (Reuters) – The 2014 U.S. corn crop, while still a record, will be slightly below recent market expectations according to government data released on Monday, potentially giving a boost to beaten-down corn prices, while the soybean production estimate continues to rise.
The United States Department of Agriculture trimmed its corn crop estimate to 14.407 billion bushels from 14.475 billion in October, and lowered ending stocks to 2.008 billion bu. from 2.081 billion.
In both cases, traders had been leaning toward higher estimates. Projected U.S. season-average prices for corn were raised by 10 cents per bushel, to a midpoint of $3.50.
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USDA’s fourth round of 2014 crop estimates mostly reflected fine tuning, though, with a hearty dose of harvested data to inform the agency’s estimates.
USDA estimated the U.S. soybean crop at a record 3.958 billion bu., up less than one percent from October and a hair below trade forecasts averaging 3.967 billion. The crop is inching closer to the once unthought-of 4-billion bushel mark.
Projected 2014-15 U.S. soybean ending stocks were steady on the month at 450 million bushels; USDA raised its export and crush forecasts by a combined 30 million bushels to absorb the larger crop.
U.S. corn yields will be a record 173.4 bu. per acre, with 22 states expected to post new yield marks. Nov. 1 yield data show the highest number of ears on record for the 10 primary growing states, USDA said.
Soybeans were also in great shape. Compared with final results for 2013, pod counts are up in eight of the 11 published states, USDA said. Fifteen states are heading toward record high soybean yields, including No. 1 producer Illinois.
Forecast U.S. wheat carryout was lowered by 10 million bushels, to 644 million, as a notable cut in stocks of hard red spring wheat more than offset higher stocks of hard red winter wheat.
Expected U.S. beef and pork production for 2015 were both lowered slightly from October. Cattle producers are expected to slow marketings in the second half of next year.
CHINESE CORN CROP DOWN BUT IMPORTS CUT TOO
The USDA lowered its forecast for China’s 2014-15 corn crop by three million tonnes, to 214 million, but the shortfall was not expected to be a boon for imports, which were cut by 500,000 tonnes, to 2.5 million.
Global wheat consumption for 2014-15 was lowered by 1.4 million tonnes, due mainly to lower usage in Egypt, stemming in part from changes to its bread subsidy program. A one million tonne cut to Australia’s wheat crop will result in smaller exports, USDA said.
USDA left its global soybean balance sheet mostly unchanged even as production edged up in step with the huge U.S. crop.
