By Ros Krasny
WASHINGTON, Feb 10 (Reuters) – U.S. corn ending stocks for 2013-14 continue to tighten on strong export demand, the U.S. Department of Agricultural said on Monday, a potential bullish jolt to prices that helped Chicago corn futures rise to their highest levels in four months.
U.S. wheat carryout is also lower on the month on rising exports. Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks were unchanged from January but Brazil’s crop and projected exports were raised.
Chicago corn futures rose about one percent on the news, halting just below resistance at $4.50 per bushel, while wheat futures jumped 1.2 percent and soybean futures slipped by 0.5 percent.
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The USDA forecast 1.481 billion bushels of corn will remain on hand when the new crop is ready for harvest by late summer, well above the drought-affected level of 2012-13 but down from 1.631 billion in January and a second consecutive significant monthly cut.
Grain traders and analysts had forecast corn stocks at an average of 1.619 billion bu.
The stocks-to-use ratio for U.S. corn in 2013-14 will be 11.1 percent, the USDA said, down from 12.4 percent forecast in January and 13.7 percent in December. In general, the lower the ratio, the higher the potential for prices to climb.
The agency raised its forecast for the average farm price of U.S. corn by 10 cents per bu., to $4.50.
“Reduced foreign export prospects also lower competition for U.S. corn in the world market,” USDA said.
The agency cut Argentina’s projected corn crop and exports by one million tonnes. Projected imports were raised for the European Union, Egypt, South Korea, Mexico and Vietnam, USDA said.
U.S. wheat carryout for 2013-14 reversed an increase from a month ago, falling to a projected 558 million bu. from 608 million. Reductions in stocks were spread among the major classes of U.s. wheat. The average trade forecast was 603 million bu.
“A reduction in expected exports from Australia during the July-June world trade year also raises prospects for 2013-14 U.S shipments,” USDA said.
USDA’s left projected U.S. soybean. ending stocks at 150 million bu. for a third straight month. U.S. exports for 2013-14 were raised by 15 million bu., offset by higher imports and lower residual usage. The average season farm price was raised by 20 cents per bushel, to $12.70.
Citing early harvest results in the center-west region, Brazil’s soybean crop was estimated at a record high 90 million tonnes.
That pushed the South American powerhouse past the United States, with a crop of 89.5 million tonnes, as the world’s largest soybean grower. Argentina’s soybean crop was lowered by 500,000 tonnes, to 54.0 million.
Globally, U.S. corn carryout was cut to 157.3 million tonnes from 160.2 million, and wheat stocks were trimmed to 183.7 million from 185.4 million. World soybean stocks edged higher, to 73.0 million tonnes.
