By Phil Franz-Warkentin
WINNIPEG — Good quality durum wheat has enjoyed large premiums over other wheat classes this past year, but opportunities for any unpriced durum still left to sell may be getting harder to find as attention turns to the large global new crop projections.
Durum prices are currently topping out at about $9.75 per bushel in Saskatchewan, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data, which compares to CWRS bids in the province as high as $6.20 per bu. While new crop CWRS bids are relatively in line with the spot prices, any new crop durum prices available are at least $2 below the nearby values, according to market participants.
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“Our prices will be dropping off,” said one durum exporter, noting that his company was already booked solid for old crop durum well into June. “We’re not aggressively pursuing any more sales at this time,” he said, adding that other grain handlers were likely in a similar situation. As a result, he expected spot bids would soon start coming down to the new crop levels.
Mexico, northern Africa and Argentina will soon be harvesting their crops beginning in April, and “conditions look good,” according to the exporter.
He said poor quality, more than tight supplies, was behind the strength in durum over the past year. While quality remains to be seen, the better old crop prices over the past year are expected to draw in more acreage in 2015. The grain broker said a 10 to 15 percent rise in planted durum area was likely in Canada.
Agriculture Canada is currently forecasting durum area in 2014-15 at 5.46 million acres, which would be up from 4.74 million the previous year and the largest seeded area in six years.
