Strong loonie weighs on canola futures

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Published: July 19, 2011

The stronger loonie and weaker oilseed prices pushed Winnipeg canola futures down on Tuesday.

Meanwhile corn and wheat rose after the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop condition report late Monday  downgraded the condition of the U.S. corn crop more than expected.

Intense heat over much of the corn-growing region this week is expected to sap yields. However, a revised forecast for moderating temperatures caused corn and soybeans to finish below the day’s high.

Canola fell for the third straight day partly as a result of the loonie gaining a cent against the U.S. buck. Today the Bank of Canada left its interest rate unchanged but gave stronger signals that it may start increasing the rate this fall. Canada will likely start raising rates before the United States and that will attract investors to the loonie.

The hot weather in the Canadian Prairies has stressed canola but ample moisture reserves are lessening the damage. Also, rain and cooler weather are in the forecast for many areas later this week.

U.S. president Barack Obama said there was progress on a bipartisan effort to forge an agreement on budget cutting and tax increases that would allow the Congress to approve raising the debt ceiling.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Nov 11        $565.50, down $2.70

Canola Jan 12        $572.80, down $2.90

Canola Mar 12        $578.60, down $2.40

Canola May 12        $583.80, down $1.10

Western Barley Oct 11        $205, unchanged

The previous day’s best basis was one cent under the November contract according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.

The July contract’s 14-day Relative Strength Index was 45. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans Aug 11        $13.7925, down 6.25 cents

Soybeans Sep 11        $13.77, down 5.25

Soybeans Jan 12        $13.9075, down 5.25

Corn Sep 11        $6.98, up 1.75

Corn Mar 12        $6.9925, up 10.5

Oats Sep 11        $3.535, up 0.5

Oats Mar 12        $3.75, up 0.5

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Sep 11        $8.33, up 10.5 cents

Spring Wheat Dec 11        $8.35, up 11.5

Spring Wheat Mar 12        $8.45, up 9.75

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.57 to $97.50 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0520 US, up from $1.0400 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 95.06 cents Cdn.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index closed up 78.78 points, or 0.59 percent, at 13,332.92.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 21.27 points, or 1.63 percent, at 1,326.71.

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