PARIS, Feb 6 (Reuters) – Consultancy Strategie Grains cut by about 500,000 tonnes its forecast for this year’s European Union rapeseed harvest to 21.56 million tonnes, mainly due to expected damage to crops from severe cold last month in the east of the bloc.
“Winter damage is expected to affect mainly Hungary and Bulgaria and to a lesser extent Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic,” it said in a report on EU oilseed markets.
“We will have to wait until the plantlets resume growing in spring to get a clear picture of the loss,” it added.
Read Also
U.S. grains: Soybean futures set two-week high on US weather worry, soyoil rally
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a two-week high on Friday on worries that heat may threaten U.S. crops and expectations that the country’s biofuel policy would boost demand for soyoil, analysts said.
However, EU and global rapeseed supply was expected to be “extremely tight” in 2017-18, like in 2016-17, as strong demand would offset the anticipated recovery in harvest output, Strategie Grains said.
It expects a 2.6 million tonne increase in world rapeseed production in 2017-18 to 69 million tonnes.
Tight supply has supported a rally in EU rapeseed futures since last summer’s disappointing crop, with spot prices reaching their highest since 2014.
Potential rapeseed production this year could still vary considerably, with very good growing conditions like in 2014 making a crop of over 23 million tonnes possible, while poor conditions like in 2011 could push output down towards 18 million, it said.
Moisture levels would be important for spring crop development and rainfall forecast from late January in western Europe could be beneficial after recent dryness, it said.
Compared with its previous forecasts in early December, the firm reduced projected production by 130,000 tonnes each in Poland and Bulgaria, by 120,000 tonnes in Hungary and 40,000 tonnes in both the Czech Republic and Slovakia, to factor in winter weather.
It also trimmed expected production in Germany and the Baltic states in view of official estimates, while increasing slightly its outlook for France, Denmark and Sweden, it said.
Rapeseed is the main oilseed crop grown in the EU and used to make edible oil, livestock feed and biodiesel fuel.
Strategie Grains last month also lowered its forecast for 2017 output of soft wheat, the EU’s most produced cereal, as it similarly took into account winter damage in eastern countries.
