Statistics Canada’s planting intentions report Tuesday that showed farmers hope to seed a record 19.2 million acres to the oilseed helped to pressure canola futures a little lower on the day.
The average of pre report estimates of analysts polled by the Western Producer was 18.24 million acres, with a range of 17.5 to 19.2 million.
The actual amount that gets seeded will depend on whether fields dry up enough to support equipment.
Also weighing on canola was a decline in soybean futures as international traders generally stepped back from commodities ahead of a major meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Some analysts believe the Fed might signal that it will start backing away from its policy of economic stimulous.
Concerns were also rising about China’s efforts to reign in a red hot economy and rising inflation.
These factors could lead to less demand for commodities.
Wheat dipped despite continuing concerns about drought in the U.S. southern plains, delayed seeding in Canada and North Dakota and dry weather in Europe.
The following are the results of Statistics Canada’s seeding intentions survey.
Crop 2009 (final) 2010 (final) March 2011
thousands of acres
Total wheat 24,502 21,065 24,724
Spring wheat 16,975 16,475 17,984
Durum wheat 5,660 3,150 5,050
Winter wheat 1,867 1,439 1,690
Canola 16,200 16,818 19,225
Barley 8,663 6,911 7,833
Summerfallow 6,230 11,610 5,080
Oats 3,732 2,913 4,056
Soybeans 3,448 3,665 3,757
Corn for grain 2,974 3,000 3,211
Dry field peas 3,760 3,450 2,745
Flaxseed 1,710 925 1,210
Tuesday’s close
Canola May 11 $566.20, down $9.70
Canola Jul 11 $576.50, down $9.50
Canola Nov 11 $578.00, down $9.90
The previous day’s best basis narrowed to 10 cents under the May contract according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.
The May contract’s 14-day Relative Strength Index was 42. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.
Western Barley May 11 $200, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans May 11 $13.8275, down 6.75 cents
Soybeans Jul 11 $13.8925, down 7.25
Soybeans Nov 11 $13.7475, down 7.75
Corn May 11 $7.6625, up 3.75
Corn Dec 11 $6.7575, down 5.75
Oats May 11 $3.8975, down 8.25
Oats Dec 11 $4.09, down 5.25
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat May 11 $9.735, down 7.25 cents
Spring Wheat Jul 11 $9.815, down 7.75
Spring Wheat Dec 11 $9.935, down 9.0
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell seven cents to $112.21 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0519 US, up from $1.0481 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 95.07 cents Cdn.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index rose 1.78 points, or 0.01 percent, at 13,909.10.
The Standard and Poor’s 500 index rose 11.89 points, or 0.90 percent, to 1347.21.
