Winnipeg, May 4 (CNS Canada) – Just how much barley did Canadian cattle eat over the winter? Will there be any old crop wheat left over this year? And how much canola was really grown in 2015?
We’ll have a better handle on these questions when Statistics Canada releases its crop stocks data on May 6.
The Stocks of Principal Field Crops report will show supplies of Canada’s major grains, oilseeds, and pulses held on farm and in commercial facilities as of March 31.
The March stocks report does not typically contain major market moving surprises, but the data will be followed by analysts and industry participants looking to fine-tune their supply-demand projections.
Canola has seen strong exports and domestic crusher demand this year, which should see stocks come in below the 8.328 million seen at the same point last year, according to market participants. While smaller canola stocks are generally expected, just how much smaller remains to be seen.
If canola stocks are deemed tight, it will place more focus on new crop production prospects and lend support to prices, said Jerry Klassen, manager of the Canadian office of Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Products in Winnipeg.
The StatsCan stocks numbers may also shed light on the size of the 2015 canola crop.
“There is a lingering view that last year’s production, or carry-in from the previous year, is bigger than what’s being suggested by StatsCan so far,” said Jubinville.
He pointed to the feed, waste, and dockage number now used in Agriculture Canada’s supply and demand figures for 2014-15 of nearly 600,000 tonnes, as being “out of line with history.”
Jubinville said an adjustment will eventually be made, but it won’t change the big picture of the canola market.
Looking at the grains, “we’ve had more cattle on feed throughout the winter and heavier carcass weights, so I think we’ll see lower barley stocks,” said Klassen.
He said feed wheat was also trading at a substantial premium over barley throughout the winter, which saw less wheat and more barley in cattle rations.
At the same time, “we’ve had a surge in the (wheat) export program,” said Klassen.
He said the trade will watch just how much wheat went into feed channels, as wheat stocks are falling to historic lows.
Agriculture Canada now forecasts all-wheat ending stocks for 2015-16 at only four million million tonnes, which Jubinville described as “de facto zero.”
He added that the strong wheat export pace is well known, and the stocks report should help confirm the tightening supply situation.
“We’re looking to see how much is used as feed, because (wheat) stocks will drop to historical lows by the end of the crop year,” added Klassen.
Canadian wheat stocks on March 31, 2015 were 18.102 million tonnes.
Average trade guesses heading into the May 6 report anticipate supplies at the same point this year will be down by three million to five million tonnes.
