Statistics Canada increases canola and wheat estimates

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Published: December 3, 2009

Statistics Canada’s final 2009 production estimate, which was released today, included more canola and wheat and less oats than expected.

Statistics Canada put the canola crop at 11.83 million tonnes, about a million tonnes more than the average of analysts’ expectations. The news weighed on Winnipeg canola futures this morning.

All wheat production was put at 26.51 million tonnes, up about 900,000 tonnes over traders’ average estimate.

Both estimates are also up over the last forecast released Oct. 2.

Statistics Canada says 2.798 million tonnes of oats were produced, down from the analysts’ average estimate of 3.1 million.

The agency surveyed 28,000 farmers for the November report between Oct. 23 and Nov. 10.

The following is a breakdown of major crops, with 2008 number in brackets, in ’000 tonnes:

Spring wheat 18,120 (18,405)

Durum 5,399 (5,519)

Winter wheat 2,995 (4,687)

Canola 11,825 (12,643)

Barley 9,517 (11,781)

Corn for grain 9,561 (10,592)

Peas 3,379 (3,571)

Oats 2,798 (4,273)

Flaxseed 930 (861)

Fall rye 281 (316)

Statistics Canada also surveyed farmers about fall seeding and found that the late harvest drastically reduced winter crop acreage in Western Canada. Overall, it put winter wheat area at 1.499 million acres, down from 2.237 million last year. Fall rye was put at 325,000 acres, down from 415,000.

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