Speculative selling pressures canola lower

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Published: May 18, 2010

Speculative selling based on technical signals pressured canola futures lower.

Also weighing on canola was good seeding weather in Western Canada and a stronger Canadian dollar.

Weaker crude oil prices and a strong start to U.S. Midwest crops also weighed down grain markets.

The most active July canola contract fell $2.60 to $372.80 per tonne on 4,864 trades.

The previous day’s best basis was steady at -$9.75 per tonne off the July contract in the par region, according to the Winnipeg ICE Futures daily report.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index for July canola was steady at 29, according to BarChart.com. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates over bought.

New crop November fell $3.20 to $378.70 per tonne on 1,613 trades.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.81 cents US, up from 96.11 cents at noon the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.033 Cdn.

Winnipeg barley contracts were again untraded. July was steady at $145.50. December was steady at $150.

Chicago July soybeans fell 1.5 cents to $9.395 US per bushel; new-crop November fell three cents to $9.135.

May oats rose 2.25 cents to $1.93 per bu. December oats rose 2.25 cents to $2.1175 per bu. Oats were lifted by corn, which rose on speculation that China might buy more American corn.

In New York, crude oil for June delivery fell 67 cents to $69.41 per barrel.

Oilseeds analyst Oil World increased its forecast of world soybean production for 2009-10 to 258.9 million tonnes, up 700,000 tonnes from a forecast earlier this month.

That would be 47.6 million tonnes more than the previous crop year, mostly because of a bumper crop in South America.

Production of soybeans is expected to exceed demand by 24.5 million tonnes.

The surplus will weigh on prices as will the strong start to the 2010-11 U.S. soybean crop, Oil World said.

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