Winnipeg – ICE Futures canola contracts finished near unchanged on Thursday, as bearish technical signals and improving harvest weather was countered by spillover support from advances in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans.
While cool and wet conditions continue to cause concerns across Western Canada, the forecasts are looking more favourable over the next week and farmers were making progress in some areas.
The latest weekly crop report out of Saskatchewan, released earlier in the day, pegged the canola harvest in the province at 61 per cent complete, which was up nine points from the previous week.
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Chart-based selling also weighed on prices, as the nearby technical signals point lower for canola.
However, strength in CBOT soybeans provided some support, as traders reacted to the USDA’s latest production and stocks estimates.
About 19,308 canola contracts traded, which compares with Wednesday when 22,078 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 11,774 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures were stronger on Thursday, as traders reacted to the United States Department of Agriculture’s latest production and stocks data.
The USDA raised its estimate for 2018/19 U.S. soybean yields slightly to while lowering its acreage number. The end result saw the overall forecast for U.S. soybean production revised lower by 3 million bushels, to 4.69 billion bushels. Ending stocks were revised higher, due to larger carryover supplies, but the total supply situation was not as bearish as traders had anticipated.
After moving lower in recent days, soybeans were due for a bounce and the lack of any overtly bearish data from the USDA provided the spark for the correction.
A rally in corn also provided spillover support for beans.
CORN futures posted solid gains, as the the USDA surprisingly lowered its corn yield estimate by 0.6 bushels per acre from September, pegging average yields at 180.7 bushels per acre. Total production was down by about 50 million bushels from the previous estimate, at 14.78 billion bushels.
Rain-related harvest delays in parts of the Midwest were also supportive.
WHEAT futures were lower. The USDA only made small adjustments to its wheat balance sheet, raising U.S. ending stocks by 21 million bushels, to 956 million, while lowering its world stocks projection by 1.1 million tonnes, to 260.18 million tonnes.
Production estimates for both Russia and Australia were revised lower, but the tighter world supply situation was expected and did little to support the futures.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down $2.20 at US$70.97 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US76.70 cents, down from 76.97 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3038.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.
Canola Nov 18 496.50s -0.30 -0.06%
Canola Jan 19 502.30s -0.10 -0.02%
Canola Mar 19 508.20s unch unch
Canola May 19 511.70s -0.20 -0.04%
Canola Jul 19 514.30s -0.10 -0.02%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 18 858-2s +6-0 +0.70%
Soybeans Jan 19 872-4s +6-4 +0.75%
Soybeans Mar 19 885-0s +6-2 +0.71%
Soybeans May 19 898-4s +6-4 +0.73%
Soybeans Jul 19 910-2s +6-6 +0.75%
Soybean Meal Oct 18 312.8s +0.8 +0.26%
Soybean Meal Dec 18 316.8s +1.1 +0.35%
Soybean Meal Jan 19 317.5s +1.3 +0.41%
Soybean Oil Oct 18 28.73s +0.08 +0.28%
Soybean Oil Dec 18 29.02s +0.09 +0.31%
Soybean Oil Jan 19 29.26s +0.09 +0.31%
Corn Dec 18 369-2s +6-4 +1.79%
Corn Mar 19 381-2s +6-4 +1.73%
Corn May 19 388-4s +6-4 +1.70%
Corn Jul 19 394-0s +6-2 +1.61%
Corn Sep 19 397-0s +6-0 +1.53%
Oats Dec 18 286-4s +2-2 +0.79%
Oats Mar 19 277-2s +1-6 +0.64%
Oats May 19 276-2s +4-4 +1.66%
Oats Jul 19 275-6s +3-6 +1.38%
Oats Sep 19 277-4s +3-4 +1.28%
Wheat Dec 18 508-0s -2-4 -0.49%
Wheat Mar 19 529-2s -2-0 -0.38%
Wheat May 19 541-4s -2-0 -0.37%
Wheat Jul 19 548-0s -0-6 -0.14%
Wheat Sep 19 560-0s -0-2 -0.04%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 18 589-4s -2-2 -0.38%
Spring Wheat Mar 19 598-6s -3-4 -0.58%
Spring Wheat May 19 605-0s -4-2 -0.70%
Spring Wheat Jul 19 611-0s -4-4 -0.73%
Spring Wheat Sep 19 616-0s -4-0 -0.65%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 513-6s -2-4 -0.48%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 538-0s -2-2 -0.42%
Hard Red Wheat May 19 550-4s -2-0 -0.36%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 557-2s -1-2 -0.22%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 572-4s -1-0 -0.17%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Oct 18 112.625s +0.550 +0.49%
Live Cattle Dec 18 116.775s +0.300 +0.26%
Live Cattle Feb 19 121.250s -0.200 -0.16%
Feeder Cattle Oct 18 156.725s +0.825 +0.53%
Feeder Cattle Nov 18 156.750s +0.575 +0.37%
Feeder Cattle Jan 19 151.500s -0.625 -0.41%
Lean Hogs Oct 18 68.675s +0.200 +0.29%
Lean Hogs Dec 18 54.425s -1.525 -2.73%
Lean Hogs Feb 19 62.425s -2.100 -3.25%
