WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) – World and U.S. soybean supplies will be tighter than expected due to reduced harvests in South America and rising global demand, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday.
USDA cut its outlook for Argentine soy production by 2.5 million tonnes following heavy rains that damaged crops in that key exporter. It cut its estimate for Brazil’s harvest by one million tonnes. It also lowered its corn production forecasts for both countries.
In its first estimate of supplies for the 2016-17 crop year, the U.S. government projected ending stocks of U.S. corn would be the sixth-biggest ever, bolstered by a forecast for record production of 14.43 billion bushels.
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U.S. wheat supplies for 2016-17 were seen rising to 1.029 billion bu.s from 978 million bu. in 2015-16. The 2016-17 stocks figure was near the high end of analysts’ forecasts.
USDA estimated the 2016-17 U.S. winter wheat crop at an unexpectedly big 1.427 billion bu., based on an average yield of 47.8 bu. per acre. If realized, that would match the record average yield set in 1999.
USDA lowered its outlook for 2015-16 U.S. soy ending stocks to 400 million bu. from 445 million, raising its outlook for exports by 35 million bu. and crush by 10 million bu. Analysts, on average, were expecting 2015-16 soy ending stocks of 426 million bu.s, according to a Reuters poll.
For 2016-17 U.S. soybean end stocks were pegged at 305 million bu., 100 million below the average of estimates in the Reuters poll.
USDA cut its estimate for 2015-16 domestic corn ending stocks to 1.803 billion bu. from 1.862 billion. U.S. corn exports for 2015-16 were raised by 75 million bu., while Brazilian corn exports were cut by 2 million tonnes and Argentine corn exports by 1 million tonnes.
New-crop U.S. corn ending stocks were pegged at 2.153 billion bu. Analysts, on average, had been expecting 2016-17 U.S. corn ending stocks of 2.294 billion bu.
On the global front, corn ending stocks for 2015-16 were an unexpectedly big 207.87 million tonnes. World corn ending stocks for 2016-17 were pegged at 207.04 million tonnes.
USDA put global soybean ending stocks at 74.25 million tonnes in 2015-16 and 68.21 million tonnes in 2016-17. Analysts’ forecasts had come in at 76.28 million tonnes for 2015-16 and 73.23 million tonnes in 2016-17.
World wheat stocks were pegged at 242.91 million tonnes in 2015-16 and 257.34 million tonnes in 2016-17.
