Smaller canola crop outlook fails to lift futures prices

The Statistics Canada canola seeding intentions number slightly supported canola futures Thursday but at the close contracts were little changed.

July Canola rose as high was $456 a tonne but settled down 10 cents at $451.40 on a late session sell off, triggered by technical selling and a stronger Canadian dollar.

November climbed as high as $450.90 but settled unchanged at $446.

Statistics Canada projected 2015 Canadian canola seedings at 19.4 million acres, down 4.5 percent from last year and within the range of expectations but toward the lower end of the range. The number was 1.36 million acres less than the Agriculture Canada forecast.

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A lot can happen between when the survey was done in the latter half of March and when seeding is complete in June.

However, if the 19.4 million figure holds true, it could keep canola stocks quite tight and lead to a reduced carryout at the end of 2015-16.

Canola enjoyed support from soybeans today, which climbed on a firm cash market and concern about a new truckers strike in Brazil.

Reuters reported soy oil rose on a surging cash market for soy oil in Argentina.

July and September corn finished slightly lower on a favourable planting outlook in the U.S. and profit taking after the contract edged a little higher early in the day.

Kansas wheat edged a little higher on better than expected weekly export sales but Minneapolis was mixed, with the Canadian acreage number seen as slightly bearish.

Statistics Canada said intended all wheat area is 24.765 million acres, up 3.9 percent on last year. That was within the range of expectations in a poll by Commodity News Service, but Reuters said it was a little higher than the mid point of its poll of analysts and traders.

USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. wheat of 397,500 tonnes for 2014-15, above trade expectations, and 126,700 tonnes for 2015-16.

The International Grains Council trimmed its forecast of 2015-16 world wheat production to 705 million tonnes, down four million from its previous forecast and down from 721 million in 2014-15.

Reuters said beneficial rains are forecast for the southern U.S. Plains winter wheat belt early next week, while dryness remains a concern in the northern Plains spring wheat belt.

Statistics Canada’s oats seeding intentions number came in higher than expected at 3.645 million acres, up 30 percent from last year.

The nearby Chicago oats contract settled at US$2.5125 a bushel, down 7.5 cents.

The pulse seeding numbers were less than expected with pea acreage at 3.83 million acres, up only about one percent.

Lentil acreage at 3.35 million was up 7.7 percent but several analysts had expected gains of about 15 percent.

The barley number at 6.478 million acres was up about 10 percent from last year, but was near the low end of the range of expectations, which could support prices.

With better and drier spring weather this year, the summerfallow number is expected to drop about 41 percent to 2.72 million acres.

The survey was conducted from March 18 to March 31 with about 11,500 farmers.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.58 to US$57.74 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US82.32 cents, up from 81.63 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2147.

Stronger commodities prices helped lift the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index. It closed up 87.58 points, or 0.57 percent, at 15,392.35.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 20.42 points, or 0.11 percent, to 18,058.69, the S&P 500 gained 4.97 points, or 0.24 percent, to 2,112.93 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high, adding 20.89 points, or 0.41 percent, to 5,056.06.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2015 445.30 +0.20 +0.04%

Canola Jul 2015 451.40 -0.10 -0.02%

Canola Nov 2015 446.00 unch 0.00%

Canola Jan 2016 447.10 -0.10 -0.02%

Canola Mar 2016 447.30 -0.20 -0.04%

Milling Wheat May 2015 205.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015 207.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015 212.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015 313.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015 303.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015 308.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2015 207.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2015 207.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2015 192.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2015 978.25 +7.75 +0.80%

Soybeans Jul 2015 980 +8.25 +0.85%

Soybeans Aug 2015 976.25 +8 +0.83%

Soybeans Sep 2015 965.5 +8.25 +0.86%

Soybeans Nov 2015 961.5 +7.75 +0.81%

Soybeans Jan 2016 968 +7.75 +0.81%

Soybean Meal May 2015 316.6 +1.1 +0.35%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015 315 +1.2 +0.38%

Soybean Meal Aug 2015 313.5 +1.3 +0.42%

Soybean Oil May 2015 32.02 +0.46 +1.46%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015 32.22 +0.47 +1.48%

Soybean Oil Aug 2015 32.28 +0.46 +1.45%

Corn May 2015 370.75 -1.75 -0.47%

Corn Jul 2015 376.75 -2.75 -0.72%

Corn Sep 2015 384.25 -3.25 -0.84%

Corn Dec 2015 394.5 -3 -0.75%

Corn Mar 2016 405.25 -2.5 -0.61%

Oats May 2015 251.25 -7.5 -2.90%

Oats Jul 2015 255.5 -6.75 -2.57%

Oats Sep 2015 262.5 -6 -2.23%

Oats Dec 2015 268.25 -6 -2.19%

Oats Mar 2016 275.75 -4 -1.43%

Wheat May 2015 497.75 -1 -0.20%

Wheat Jul 2015 501.25 +2.25 +0.45%

Wheat Sep 2015 510.5 +2.75 +0.54%

Wheat Dec 2015 527.25 +3.75 +0.72%

Wheat Mar 2016 541.75 +3.75 +0.70%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2015 545.25 +1.5 +0.28%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015 555.25 -0.5 -0.09%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015 564 -0.75 -0.13%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015 575 -0.5 -0.09%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016 588.5 -0.25 -0.04%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 2015 516.5 +4.5 +0.88%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 522 +4.75 +0.92%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 532.5 +5 +0.95%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 551.5 +5.5 +1.01%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 564.5 +6 +1.07%

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