Statistics Canada releases its updated acreage estimates for the year on June 30, but the timing of the survey could lead to more questions and second-guessing than normal given the acreage adjustments and yield losses that have likely taken place over the past month.
The survey was conducted at the end of May and the beginning of June before a drought took hold in Alberta and Saskatchewan and while producers were reseeding following frost damage in the eastern Prairies.
With the canola crop in particular looking very uneven, the acreage number will do little in helping determine possible production.
Read Also
U.S. livestock: Cattle hit fresh highs, hogs inch upward
Chicago cattle futures hit fresh highs on Monday while hogs made small gains.
“As important as acres are, yield is twice as important,” said Mike Jubinville, of ProFarmer Canada. He said there was a historical tendency to underestimate canola area in the first report of the year, but thought that may not be the case this year.
In addition, there is usually about a two percent decline in harvested area compared to seeded area, but the abandoned acres may be considerably larger this year, Jubinville said.
About 1.5 million acres of canola needed to be reseeded, but “a couple hundred thousand” acres of that area went to other crops instead, said CWB market analyst Bruce Burnett. He said actual harvested canola area will likely drop further still, but that won’t be represented in the June report.
“People shied away from canola on the second-go-round”, said Jerry Klassen, manager of GAP S.A. Grains and Produits in Winnipeg. “I don’t think we’ll see any big surprises, but the market will be extremely sensitive to the canola number,” he added.
Pre-report guesses for canola range from about 19.0 million to 20.4 million acres, with the majority coming in at the lower end of that scale. That would compare with the 19.4 million acres forecast in the March seeding intentions report issued in April and the year-ago level of 20.3 million.
For wheat, acreage estimates range from 24.2 million to 25.8 million, which compares with the 24.765 million acres forecast in April and last year’s 23.835 million.
Analysts forecast 5.3 to 5.7 million acres of durum. The March seeding intention report had the number at 5.500 million. Lasts year, area was 4.750 million acres.
The barley market will also be watching closely, Klassen said, as the area in the seeding intentions report was smaller than expected.
Analysts expect about 6.1 million to 6.9 million acres in the June report, which compares with 6.478 million forecast in April and the year-ago level of 5.880 million.
The following are the pre-report trade guesses, in million acres.
| Pre-rpt est. | StatCan March | StatCan 2014 | |
| Canola | 19.00-20.40 | 19.416 | 20.325 |
| All wheat* | 24.20-25.80 | 24.765 | 23.835 |
| Durum | 5.30-5.7 | 5.500 | 4.750 |
| Barley | 6.10-6.90 | 6.478 | 5.880 |
| Flax | 1.50-1.70 | 1.630 | 1.555 |
| Oats | 3.20-3.80 | 3.645 | 2.798 |
* All wheat includes winter wheat remaining
