By Rod Nickel
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, May 1 (Reuters) – Canadian stockpiles of canola are expected to have dwindled to a four-year low ahead of planting season after brisk demand from crushers and exporters, but wheat supplies likely swelled, according to a Reuters survey of 12 traders and analysts.
On Friday, Statistics Canada will estimate crop supplies as of March 31, 2017, from commercial and farm storage.
The StatsCan report is based on a farmer survey and government data, and offers a snapshot before farmers sow the next crop.
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The average analyst estimate pegged total canola stocks at 6.7 million tonnes, down 22 percent year over year, and the smallest early-spring supplies since 2013.
Rising canola prices are a good indication that supplies of the oilseed are running thin, said Chuck Penner, analyst at LeftField Commodity Research.
More than a million acres of canola, wheat, and other crops are still in fields, according to government and industry estimates, with quality unknown, after wet October weather pre-empted harvest season.
Canada has domestically crushed and exported more canola year over year, draining stocks.
All-wheat supplies jumped 27 percent to a three-year high 18.3 million tonnes, according to the average estimate by analysts, while durum stocks were seen nearly doubling to 5.2 million tonnes.
Canada produced its second-biggest wheat harvest in 25 years last year, and record-large durum output, but excessively wet weather damaged quality.
While durum stocks appear high, quality problems mean that much of those supplies will be used only for animal feed, Penner said.
Canada is the world’s biggest canola exporter and a major wheat exporter. Statscan surveyed farmers from March 16 to April 2.
The following are trade estimates for Statistics Canada’s report on March 31, 2017
| Crop stocks Mln tonnes | Avg estimate | Lowest | Highest | StatsCan March 31 2016 |
| All wheat | 18.3 | 17.8 | 18.6 | 14.375 |
| Durum | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 2.702 |
| Canola | 6.7 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 8.565 |
| Oats | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.817 |
| Barley | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 3.733 |
