KIEV, April 4 (Reuters) – Bad weather during winter and spring sowing campaigns is likely to reduce the wheat harvest in top east European wheat producers Russia, Ukraine and Romania, analysts and forecasters said.
The wheat crop in Ukraine is likely to fall 35 percent to around 17 million tonnes this year, the state weather centre’s Tetyana Adamenko said, adding that of the 14.8 million acres sowed for the 2016 winter wheat harvest, only about 12.4 million acres is likely to be threshed.
“We expect that up to 1 million hectares (2.47 million aces) sowed to winter wheat would be reseeded because plants are too weak,” Adamenko said, adding that 26 percent of Ukrainian winter grain area was under risk.
UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy put Ukraine’s 2016 wheat harvest at 17.3 million tonnes, down from a forecast of 17.5 million make last fall.
The country, which consumes about 12 million tonnes of wheat in a season, harvested 26.5 million tonnes of wheat last year.
Romania sowed about 4.7 million acres of wheat and rye, a 12 percent decrease from the previous season and an 11-year low, as widespread torrential rain in the autumn of 2015 delayed field works outside the optimal sowing period.
Some 95 percent of Romania’s total acreage under wheat and rye is sown to wheat. Analysts see this year’s wheat crop at 5 million to 7.5 million tonnes.
Last year, Romania reaped 7.85 million tonnes of wheat from 4.9 million acres.
Russia, a major global wheat exporter, is expected to have a smaller crop in 2016 due to a lower sown area.
SovEcon, a leading agriculture consultancy, estimates Russia’s 2016 wheat crop at 57 million tonnes, down from 62 million tonnes last year, it said on Monday.
Its estimate is based on weather forecasts for a cold April and May in Russia’s eastern regions and which may prompt farmers to reduce their spring wheat sowing area.
Russia has already sown two percent of planned spring grains. The pace of sowing is slower than last year, according to the Agriculture ministry data.
The country’s winter grains area was also reduced due to unfavourable weather in autumn, but the condition of winter grains is better than a year ago thanks to a warm winter.
HUNGARY, BULGARIA
Bulgaria and Hungary have indicated good prospects for their wheat harvests.
Bulgaria had a mild autumn and winter and wheat sowings are developing well, said Angel Vukadinov, a senior member of Bulgaria’s national Association of Grain producers.
“The plantings are developing faster for this time of the year. The weather has been very favourable so far. I am optimistic about the crops,” Vukadinov said, giving no forecast.
Bulgaria harvested 4.75 million tonnes of wheat and 757,000 tonnes of barley in 2015. It planted 2.7 million acres to wheat last autumn.
Hungarian officials have said the autumn sowings were in a very good condition and wheat was planted to 2.4 million acres.
Jozsef Vancsura, Chairman of Hungarian Grain Growers’ Association, says wheat plantings have weathered the winter well as the soil has been fully saturated with moisture. There is no crop damage and growth is healthy thanks to the warm weather.
There is no estimate for the wheat harvest but the crop looked promising, he said.
