Oilseed traders concerned about South American weather

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Published: November 30, 2010

Dryness in Argentina, a weaker Canadian dollar and reduced commercial hedging helped to lift canola futures.

The canola basis appears to have narrowed.

Rising soybeans also lent support. Concerns continue about dry conditions in northern Argentina. Brazil crops are mostly good.

Wheat was supported by a forecast for dry weather to continue in the U.S. hard red winter wheat belt and too much rain in eastern Australia.

China’s top grain trader said he does not expect large corn imports this year because of an adequate domestic crop. Frank Ning, chairman of COFCO Ltd. told Reuters that the level of future corn imports will depend on how rapidly the government allows expansion of corn processing into ethanol, sweetener and starch. If it is controlled and demand growth mostly comes from livestock, then the import need will be modest.

A general negative factor in the market is the lingering worry over debt problems in countries that use the euro as currency. The worries strengthened the U.S. dollar and gold prices.

In Winnipeg, the January canola contract rose $4.50 to $536.40 per tonne on 12,971 trades.

The March contract rose $4.40 to $543.10 on 7,751 trades.

The November 2011 contract rose $2.40 to $498.30.

The previous day’s best basis narrowed to $13.50 under the January contract.

The January contract 14-day Relative Strength Index was 53. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.

December barley futures rose $2 at $187 per tonne. March also rose $2 to $187.

Chicago January soybeans rose eight cents to $12.43 US per bushel.

December corn fell 8.25 cents to $5.30 per bu.

December oats rose 2.25 cents to $3.40 per bu.

Minneapolis hard spring wheat rose 3.5 cents to $7.40 per bu.

In New York, crude oil for January delivery fell $1.62 to $84.11 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.43 cents US, down from 97.78 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0264.

The TSX composite index rose 57.23 points to close at 12,952.88. The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 7.21 points to 1,180.55.

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