The price outlook for most wheat types fell in the latest Pool Return Outlook from the Canadian Wheat Board, but durum is up.
Most wheat types are down by $1 to $4 per tonne from the October PRO.
The exception is No. 1 CW red spring 14.5 protein, No. 1 CW soft white spring and feed wheat, which all increased slightly from October.
Durum rose by $ 1 to $6 per tonne.
Malting barley fell $7. Pool A feed barley value was steady, while Pool B fell by $6 per tonne.
The wheat board said wheat futures weakened a little in the past month, largely due to broader economic issues outside of crop markets.
Generally crop prices are well supported by fairly tight stocks and strong demand. Chinese demand for soybeans is red hot and there is a chance the country will import significant amounts of corn.
Dry weather in the U.S. winter wheat belt this fall is supporting wheat prices. In Ukraine and Russia, higher-than-normal temperatures are promoting plant growth and delaying dormancy. This increases winter-kill potential.
Although Russia had a devastating drought, it does not appear that it will engage in a major grain import plan. The same appears true for Pakistan, where flooding damaged crops.
The CWB said global durum consumption will exceed production and ending stocks will decrease year-on-year, providing price support.
Because of weather damage, there is a shortage of No. 1 and 2 Canadian durum.
Limited supplies of high-quality durum stocks in the United States, Canada and the European Union offer strong support for maintaining relatively wide spreads between higher- and lower-quality durum throughout the 2010-11 marketing year.
The barley market is watching the Australian harvest in eastern states where there is a large crop in the field but recent rain has caused problems.
“Although overall world barley supplies are tight, Australian exporters have already started aggressively competing for export demand in anticipation of abundant domestic supplies. This new influx of feed barley into export channels has already pushed down the international feed barley price structure,” the board said.
The final quality of Australia’s crop will also have a big influence on malting barley prices. If it produces an even an average crop, it will cool the malting barley market but if continued rain causes a crop wreck, prices will be driven higher.
