Lower dollar boosts canola

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: January 18, 2019

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Winnipeg – The ICE Futures canola contacts finished the day stronger, finding support from a weaker Canadian dollar.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean, oil and meal contracts were all stronger. Soyoil contracts were up sharply, which was supportive for canola contracts.

There is still concern though about China/United States relations. While China has confirmed it will visit the U.S. for trade talks at the end of the month, the latest news about little progress having been made previously is pressuring the soy complex.

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Little rain has fallen over the dry soybean areas in Brazil, which has been supportive for oilseed markets.

There is still concern about China and Canada relations affecting canola imports. Many traders have speculated that canola shipments have fallen in the crosshairs of the political tensions.

About 14,983 canola contracts traded, which compares with Wednesday when 14,894 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 8,276 of the contracts traded.

CBOT soybean, oil and meal contracts all finished the day up. Values jumped sharply higher in the last hour of trading.

Brazil’s agriculture consultancy has reduced its soybean crop estimate to 117.2 million tonnes, down from their previous estimate of 122 million tonnes.

There are conflicting reports coming out of China in regards to the African swine fever outbreak. There are concerns China may need to cut back their soybean purchases because of the outbreak. But Chinese officials are suggesting their hog operators may soon begin replenishing their herds.

CBOT corn prices finished the day in the green,

South Korea bought another 60,000 tonnes corn. This is separate from the previous 65,000 tonnes they purchased.

Concerns are beginning to surface about possible yield loss in Brazil’s corn crop from the extended dry periods.

Chinese corn stocks are estimated to be around 70 to 80 million tonnes. Usual Chinese corn demand is usually around 220 million tonnes per year.

Wheat futures in the U.S. finished the day up.

There are reports that Russia has asked some grain shippers to slow their exports in the second half of the marketing year.

Japan purchased 120,000 tonnes of wheat in a regular tender.

 

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down 24 cents at US$52.07 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.22 cents, down from 75.48 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3294.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Mar 19 483.20s +3.80 +0.79%

Canola May 19 491.20s +3.40 +0.70%

Canola Jul 19 498.80s +3.40 +0.69%

Canola Nov 19 497.20s +2.90 +0.59%

Canola Jan 20 503.00s +2.40 +0.48%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 19 907-6s +13-2 +1.48%

Soybeans May 19 921-0s +13-0 +1.43%

Soybeans Jul 19 934-0s +13-2 +1.44%

Soybeans Aug 19 939-0s +13-0 +1.40%

Soybeans Sep 19 941-0s +11-4 +1.24%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 19 312.2s +2.1 +0.68%

Soybean Meal May 19 315.8s +2.1 +0.67%

Soybean Meal Jul 19 319.6s +2.0 +0.63%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 19 28.77s +0.54 +1.91%

Soybean Oil May 19 29.04s +0.53 +1.86%

Soybean Oil Jul 19 29.33s +0.54 +1.88%

 

Corn Mar 19 380-0s +6-0 +1.60%

Corn May 19 388-0s +5-6 +1.50%

Corn Jul 19 395-4s +5-4 +1.41%

Corn Sep 19 398-4s +4-6 +1.21%

Corn Dec 19 403-2s +4-0 +1.00%

 

Oats Mar 19 295-6s +0-2 +0.08%

Oats May 19 292-4s +2-6 +0.95%

Oats Jul 19 290-6s +1-0 +0.35%

Oats Sep 19 282-2s unch unch

Oats Dec 19 277-0s unch unch

 

Wheat Mar 19 517-6s +5-2 +1.02%

Wheat May 19 523-0s +5-0 +0.97%

Wheat Jul 19 528-2s +5-2 +1.00%

Wheat Sep 19 536-6s +5-2 +0.99%

Wheat Dec 19 549-6s +4-6 +0.87%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 19 572-0s +7-0 +1.24%

Spring Wheat May 19 576-6s +7-0 +1.23%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 583-2s +6-2 +1.08%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 590-4s +6-2 +1.07%

Spring Wheat Dec 19 603-4s +7-0 +1.17%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 504-0s +8-4 +1.72%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 514-4s +8-0 +1.58%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 524-4s +7-2 +1.40%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 536-4s +6-6 +1.27%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 553-2s +6-2 +1.14%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Feb 19 127.100s -0.725 -0.57%

Live Cattle Apr 19 126.900s -0.825 -0.65%

Live Cattle Jun 19 116.825s -0.675 -0.57%

 

Feeder Cattle Jan 19 141.425s -2.350 -1.63%

Feeder Cattle Mar 19 142.925s -1.775 -1.23%

Feeder Cattle Apr 19 144.225s -1.325 -0.91%

 

Lean Hogs Feb 19 60.850s +0.800 +1.33%

Lean Hogs Apr 19 64.625s -0.450 -0.69%

Lean Hogs May 19 70.625s -0.200 -0.28%

 

About the author

Ashley Robinson

Ashley Robinson writes for MarketsFarm specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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