Good harvest weather across most of Western Canada again pressured canola futures lower on Monday.
As of today, Western Canadian farmers have harvested 56 percent of their crops, up from about 33 percent a week ago, but well off the five-year average of 89 percent, the Canadian Wheat Board said.
Environment Canada forecasts clear warm weather into the coming weekend.
Statistics Canada released its September crop production report. Farmers were surveyed in early September so the report might not have captured the full effect of the bad weather that plagued harvesting farmers through the month.
Frost, rain and disease reduced test weights and created quality problems.
The forecast came in mostly within the range of analyst’s expectations.
StatsCan said farmers would produce 10.3 million tonnes of Canola, down 16.3 percent from last year. It revised the 2009 crop to 12.42 million tonnes.
Manitoba canola production is expected to fall 32 percent and Saskatchewan 27 percent due to reduced seeded acreage, flooding and poor yields in some regions. Alberta farmers in early September expected to harvest the second largest crop in that province’s history at four million metric tonnes, mainly the result of a record harvested area of 5.4 million acres.
StatsCan put the spring wheat crop at 16.49 million tonnes (18.45 million last year), durum at 3.04 million (5.4 million), barley 8.26 million (9.52 million), peas 2.78 million (3.38 million), oats 2.32 million (2.91 million), lentils 1.48 million (1.51 million) and flax 537,000 tonnes (930,000 tonnes)
The U.S. corn and soybean harvests were both at 37 percent as of Sunday, well ahead of the five-year average.
Two Brazilian private analysts increased their forecasts for that country’s soybean crop after recent rains encouraged farmers to seed more of the crop.
In Winnipeg, November canola fell $2.40 per tonne to $461 on 11,075 trades.
The January contract fell $2.20 to $485.60 on 6,577 trades.
The previous day’s best basis was $19.13 per tonne under the November contract in the par region, according to the Winnipeg ICE Futures daily report.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index for November was 54 according to BarChart.com. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.
Winnipeg October barley fell $4.50 to $174.50 per tonne. December fell $4.50 to $175.50.
Chicago new crop November soybeans fell three cents to $10.54 US per bushel. January fell 2.75 cents to $10.64.
December oats rose 4.25 cents to $3.375 per bu. March oats rose 4.5 cent to $3.4775.
In New York, crude oil for November delivery fell 11 cents to $81.47 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.71 cents US, down from 97.90 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0234 Cdn.
The TSX composite index closed at 12,322.94, down 40.14 points. The S&P 500 fell 9.21 points to close at 1,137.03.
