WINNIPEG — Soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade both fell to their lowest levels in years during the week ending July 23, and could be pointed lower still, according to an analyst.
While good export demand did keep the nearby August soybean contract well supported, the more actively traded new crop months are all trending lower, with November hitting a low of $10.55 US per bushel during the week. Prices did correct slightly off of those lows, but the move was described as “a dead cat bounce” by analyst Terry Reilly of Futures International in Chicago.
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Reilly said November soybeans would likely head toward the $10.25 per bu. level over the next few weeks, barring a major weather issue. Long range forecasts are calling for drier weather heading into August, which could raise some concerns for the crop. He also noted that solid export demand, especially from China, may slow the downward move as U.S. soybeans remain cheap compared to Brazilian-origin supplies.
For corn, the December contract hit a low of $3.6575 per bu. July 23, but could be heading to the $3.3500 to $3.4500 per bu. area over the next few weeks, according to Reilly.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture placed 76 percent of the U.S. crop in the good-to-excellent category in its weekly report, which was the best rating in more than a decade for this time of year. Reilly said private crop tours were also reporting record ear counts and great yields, contributing to the bearish tone in the corn market.
