The Canadian Wheat Board’s first Pool Return Outlook for the 2011-12 crop year forecasts stronger wheat and feed barley and much stronger durum and designated barley prices.
The board says the market is exceptionally volatile and much can change before harvest.
It forecast a modest seven percent increase in world wheat production, and sees reduced global stocks by the end of 2011-12. Also very tight world corn stocks provide a solid floor to all grain prices.
It said this suggests, at this early point in the year, that historically strong wheat prices will continue in the new crop year.
The premium for high protein hard red wheat is expected to settle back a little, based on an assumption for more normal production than last year when moisture at harvest downgraded Canadian and Australian wheat.
The new crop PRO for No 1 CW red spring wheat 14.5 percent protein is $365 per tonne at port, down from the current 2010-11 PRO of $385.
However, the PRO for No. 1 CWRS 11.5 percent protein is $321 per tonne at port, up from the 2010-11 PRO of $310.
The PRO for No. 1 CW amber durum 11.5 percent protein is $366 per tonne, up from $304 in the current 2010-11 PRO.
The feed barley PRO is $257 per tonne, up from the current PRO for Pool B of $238.
The PRO for select CW two-row barley is $377 per tonne, up from $253 in the current 2010-11 PRO.
