Durum is higher and wheat slightly lower in the latest Pool Return Outlooks for 2013-14 from the CWB.
Compared to the last PRO released on Nov. 7, projected returns for wheat range from $1 to $2 per tonne lower, while durum projected returns range from $16 to $19 per tonne higher.
Canola projected returns are unchanged.
The Winter Pool PRO for No. 1 CWRS 12.5 percent protein is $285 per tonne at port, down from $287 in early November.
The PRO for No. 1 durum 12.5 percent protein is $309 at port, up from $290 in early November.
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All the PROs by grade and protein breakdown are available at the CWB’s website.
The following is the the CWB PRO commentaryfor the 2013-14 pools.
Wheat – Wheat futures have declined considerably since the last PRO was released, giving back all remaining gains from the October rally, with Minneapolis wheat futures setting new contract lows over the last month. Markets continue to monitor crop prospects as rains experienced last week continue to improve soil moisture conditions in North Africa and South America; however these rains have caused some concern in Argentina and Brazil regarding wheat quality. Other concerns have been raised as frost in areas of eastern Australia has damaged wheat quality and yields. Overall, harvest in Australia continues to advance. As for the U.S., higher than expected corn yields and the proposal to reduce the ethanol mandate have been working on pushing down the wheat structure. The U.S. winter wheat crop remains in good condition.
Current Minneapolis wheat futures prices for the March 2014 contract through to December 2014 are in the range of $7.05 to $7.25 US per bushel, respectively, while the Canadian dollar has weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar.
Given current PRO assumptions, farmers in the Futures Choice Winter Pool can expect to achieve a final return for 1 CWRS 13.5 in-store port position made up of the March 2014 futures value they lock in plus $14 per tonne.
Durum – Over the past few weeks Canadian durum prices have been moving upwards from their recent lows as a result of strong nearby demand and logistical challenges. Durum PROs reflect stronger prices, narrower protein spreads and a slightly weaker Canadian dollar.
Canola – Canola futures have declined slightly since the last PRO and continue to face pressure from large production, even with good demand from crushers and international buyers. Current canola futures prices for the March 2014 contract through to July 2014 are in the range of $501 to $514 Canadian per tonne.
General pool assumptions:
- Canadian dollar at 94 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
- Current forward futures structure for wheat and canola.
The Winter Pool reflects activity through the second half of the crop year, with sales to be executed by the end of August 2014 (farmer deliveries by the end of July)
