Winnipeg, Jan. 12 – CWB, formerly known as the Canadian Wheat Board, released its first Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the upcoming 2015-16 (Aug-Jul) crop year on Jan. 12.
“PROs for 2015-16 are based on the best available information today, with the understanding that the 2015 production season still remains ahead and will ultimately determine price direction and levels,” said the CWB release. Global wheat and coarse grain ending stocks are projected to increase in 2015-16, contributing to an underlying bearish tone to the 2015-16 markets, said the release. However, the weaker Canadian dollar provides an offsetting effect. As a result, the Canadian dollar projected pool returns are overall not dramatically different from values for the 2014-15 Winter pools, said CWB.
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CWB’s most recent PROs for the 2014-15 crop year were released on Dec. 18, 2014.
PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including CWB’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.
To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.
CWB PROs include the general assumptions of a Canadian dollar at 85 US cents and a current forward futures structure for wheat and canola.
CWB PRO (Canadian dollars per tonne)
In store Vancouver or St. Lawrence
Early
Delivery Annual
Pool Pool
Wheat 12-Jan 12-Jan
1 CWRS 14.5 316.00 316.00
1 CWRS 14.0 313.00 313.00
1 CWRS 13.5 310.00 310.00
1 CWRS 13.0 307.00 307.00
1 CWRS 12.5 301.00 301.00
1 CWRS 12.0 296.00 296.00
1 CWRS 11.5 291.00 291.00
2 CWRS 14.5 313.00 313.00
2 CWRS 14.0 310.00 310.00
2 CWRS 13.5 307.00 307.00
2 CWRS 13.0 304.00 304.00
2 CWRS 12.5 298.00 298.00
2 CWRS 12.0 293.00 293.00
2 CWRS 11.5 288.00 288.00
3 CWRS 13.0 288.00 288.00
3 CWRS 12.5 282.00 282.00
3 CWRS 12.0 277.00 277.00
3 CWRS 11.5 272.00 272.00
Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 433.00 433.00
1 CWAD 12.5 430.00 430.00
1 CWAD 11.5 425.00 425.00
1 CWAD 421.00 421.00
2 CWAD 13.0 423.00 423.00
2 CWAD 12.5 420.00 420.00
2 CWAD 11.5 415.00 415.00
2 CWAD 411.00 411.00
3 CWAD 13.0 406.00 406.00
3 CWAD 11.5 403.00 403.00
3 CWAD 400.00 400.00
Malting Barley
Select CW Two-Row 300.00 300.00
Canola
1 Canada 455.00 455.00
Field Peas
2 Canada Yellow 290.00 290.00
Futures Choice Early
Delivery
Pool
Wheat 12-Jan
Minneapolis December 2015 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 39.00
1 CWRS 14.0 36.00
1 CWRS 13.5 33.00
1 CWRS 13.0 30.00
1 CWRS 12.5 25.00
1 CWRS 12.0 20.00
1 CWRS 11.5 15.00
2 CWRS 14.5 36.00
2 CWRS 14.0 33.00
2 CWRS 13.5 30.00
2 CWRS 13.0 27.00
2 CWRS 12.5 22.00
2 CWRS 12.0 17.00
2 CWRS 11.5 12.00
3 CWRS 13.0 11.00
3 CWRS 12.5 6.00
3 CWRS 12.0 1.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -4.00
ICE November 2015 Basis
Canola
1 Canola 20.00
