WINNIPEG — CWB pool return outlooks for wheat, durum and canola in 2015-16 were moved lower in the latest report, released late March 26.
Projected returns for wheat were down by $5 per tonne, despite recent strength seen in U.S. futures markets. Weakening cash basis in Western Canada, generally good conditions for 2015 global wheat crops and soft demand were all weighing on wheat prices.
The outlook for the durum market continues to soften because there haven’t been any major crop or weather issues for durum being grown in Europe over the winter. CWB lowered durum PROs by $35 per tonne compared to the February report. Export prices for durum have moved lower because growing conditions have also been decent in North Africa and Canada’s acreage is expected to rise this spring.
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CWB raised PROs for canola by $10 per tonne due to lower values for soybeans. However, fundamentals for canola are “reasonably balanced” to slightly tighter than average, which should support the market, according to the report.
The price return outlook for field peas rose by $20 per tonne, as export markets have strengthened recently. Malting barley outlooks were slightly higher as markets strengthen.
CWB PROs include the general assumptions of a Canadian dollar at 80 cents versus the U.S. dollar, and a current forward futures structure for wheat and canola.
The following are CWB’s pool return outlooks detailing estimated payments to farmers for grain delivered during the 2015-16 (Aug./July) crop year, in Canadian dollars per tonne, basis in store St. Lawrence/Vancouver.
CWB PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or St. Lawrence
Wheat 26-Mar 26-Feb 26-Mar 26-Feb
1 CWRS 14.5 288.00 293.00 288.00 293.00
1 CWRS 14.0 285.00 290.00 285.00 290.00
1 CWRS 13.5 282.00 287.00 282.00 287.00
1 CWRS 13.0 279.00 284.00 279.00 284.00
1 CWRS 12.5 273.00 278.00 273.00 278.00
1 CWRS 12.0 268.00 273.00 268.00 273.00
1 CWRS 11.5 263.00 268.00 263.00 268.00
2 CWRS 14.5 285.00 290.00 285.00 290.00
2 CWRS 14.0 282.00 287.00 282.00 287.00
2 CWRS 13.5 279.00 284.00 279.00 284.00
2 CWRS 13.0 276.00 281.00 276.00 281.00
2 CWRS 12.5 270.00 275.00 270.00 275.00
2 CWRS 12.0 265.00 270.00 265.00 270.00
2 CWRS 11.5 260.00 265.00 260.00 265.00
3 CWRS 13.0 260.00 265.00 260.00 265.00
3 CWRS 12.5 254.00 259.00 254.00 259.00
3 CWRS 12.0 249.00 254.00 249.00 254.00
3 CWRS 11.5 244.00 249.00 244.00 249.00
Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 351.00 386.00 351.00 386.00
1 CWAD 12.5 348.00 383.00 348.00 383.00
1 CWAD 11.5 343.00 378.00 343.00 378.00
1 CWAD 339.00 374.00 339.00 374.00
2 CWAD 13.0 341.00 376.00 341.00 376.00
2 CWAD 12.5 338.00 373.00 338.00 373.00
2 CWAD 11.5 333.00 368.00 333.00 368.00
2 CWAD 329.00 364.00 329.00 364.00
3 CWAD 13.0 324.00 359.00 324.00 359.00
3 CWAD 11.5 321.00 356.00 321.00 356.00
3 CWAD 318.00 353.00 318.00 353.00
Malting Barley
Select CW
Two-Row 305.00 300.00 305.00 300.00
Canola
1 Canada 465.00 475.00 465.00 475.00
Field Peas
2 Canada Yellow 320.00 300.00 320.00 300.00
Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool
Wheat 26-Mar 26-Feb
Minneapolis December 2015 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 11.00 26.00
1 CWRS 14.0 8.00 23.00
1 CWRS 13.5 5.00 20.00
1 CWRS 13.0 2.00 17.00
1 CWRS 12.5 -3.00 12.00
1 CWRS 12.0 -8.00 7.00
1 CWRS 11.5 -13.00 2.00
2 CWRS 14.5 8.00 23.00
2 CWRS 14.0 5.00 20.00
2 CWRS 13.5 2.00 17.00
2 CWRS 13.0 -1.00 14.00
2 CWRS 12.5 -6.00 9.00
2 CWRS 12.0 -11.00 4.00
2 CWRS 11.5 -16.00 -1.00
3 CWRS 13.0 -17.00 -2.00
3 CWRS 12.5 -22.00 -7.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -32.00 -17.00
ICE November 2015 Basis
Canola
1 Canola 20.00 20.00
