Old crop canola futures and soybean futures were lower on Tuesday, pressured down on news that China had increased interest rates to slow its hot economy.
China’s central bank increased interest rates for the fourth time since October to quell inflation. A slower economy could reduce the Asian giant’s demand for oilseeds. However, the previous efforts to cool inflation did not hurt demand.
New crop canola futures climbed on continued worries about flooding, muddy fields and late seeding. Temperatures are expected to be a little above freezing in the eastern Prairies this week but warm to the high single digits on the weekend.
Conditions are expected to be a little warmer in the western Prairies through the week.
Corn rose to a new record high on tight stocks. USDA on
Friday will issue a new year-end stocks forecast, incorporating the March 1 stocks number from the March 31 report.
The average of analysts’ year end stocks estimates as surveyed by Reuters is 586 million bushels, down from the USDA’s forecast in March for 675 million and the lowest ending stockpile since 426 million bu. in the 1995-96 season.
Informa Economics released an updated forecast for U.S. winter wheat production of 1.496 billion bu., down from 1.531 billion last month.
The forecaster sees increased soft red wheat production, but lower hard red winter wheat.
It put the drought-plagued hard red winter wheat crop at 848 million bu. down from 1.018 billion last year.
It sees yield at 37.5 bushels per acre, down 4.8 bushels from 2010.
Last time the hard red winter crop was rated as poorly as it is now was 2002. That year the final yield was 38.2 bu. per acre, the lowest in the decade. Production was 609 million bu.
Informa this year sees abandonment at about 19 percent of all U.S. winter wheat plantings. In 2002 it was 29 percent.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola May 11 $593.20, down $1.20
Canola Jul 11 $601.80, down $1.50
Canola Nov 11 $582.50, up $1.00
Canola Jan 12 $588.40, up $1.30
The previous day’s best basis widened to $18.50 under the May contract according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.
The May contract’s Relative Strength Index was 58. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.
Western Barley May 11 $200, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans May 11 $13.7325, down 10.75 cents
Soybeans Jul 11 $13.8475, down 10.5 cents
Soybeans Nov 11 $13.7875, down 10.25 cents
Corn May 11 $7.6675, up 6.5 cents
Corn Dec 11 $6.4675, up 1.25 cents
Oats May 11 $3.915, up 5.75 cents
Oats Jul 11 $3.99, up 5 cents
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat May 11 $9.6225, up 0.75 cent
Spring Wheat Jul 11 $9.7075, up 1.5 cents
Spring Wheat Dec 11 $9.8175, up 0.5 cent
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell 13 cents to $108.34 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0378 US, up from $1.0332 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 96.36 cents Cdn.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index rose 52.18 points, or 0.37 percent, to 14,270.53.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 0.24 points, or 0.02 percent, to 1,332.63.
