Chicago wheat jumps four percent on dry forecast

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Published: March 30, 2015

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Chicago and Kansas wheat soared more than four percent on Monday on a dry weekend across the U.S. Plains and forecasts for a dry week.

Canola also rose, supported by stronger soybeans and a weaker Canadian dollar. Corn followed wheat higher.

Wheat jumped higher on forecasts for hot and mostly dry weather in the U.S. Plains, along with technical buying a day ahead of U.S. Department of Agriculture reports on planting intentions and March 1 grain stocks, traders said.

Additional support came from a forecast for excessive moisture for soft wheat areas of the Ohio River Valley.

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Minneapolis May spring wheat futures rose 2.74 percent.

The trade expects USDA on Tuesday to report U.S. March 1 wheat stocks up nearly eight percent from a year ago.

All-wheat seedings should fall year-on-year, but analysts expect plantings of spring and durum wheat to rise.

Corn futures gained for the second straight session on Monday, lifted by the wheat rally and by position squaring ahead of the USDA report.

A Reuters poll showed analysts, on average, expect 88.731 million acres of corn, down from 90.597 million last year.

Soybeans rose as traders prepared for the report and on signs of stronger-than-expected export demand.

Soyoil faced a round of technical selling after nearing its 20-day moving average. Weakness in crude oil also weighed on prices, Reuters reported.

A Reuters poll showed analysts, on average, expect a record 85.9 million acres of soybeans in 2015, up from 83.701 million last year

Soybean stocks as of March 1 are expected to be the largest in three years, at 1.346 billion bushels. Analysts’ forecasts ranged from 1.4 billion bu. and a low end of 1.273 billion.

March 1 is the halfway mark in the U.S. soybean crop year so there is still the chance that soy stocks by the end of crop year could be very tight.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 19 cents to US$48.68 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US78.81 cents, down from 79.49 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2689.

North American stock indexes were up one percent or more in afternoon trade.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2015 452.60 +4.00 +0.89%
Canola Jul 2015 453.50 +3.90 +0.87%
Canola Nov 2015 445.90 +3.80 +0.86%
Canola Jan 2016 447.60 +4.70 +1.06%

Canola Mar 2016 448.60 +3.90 +0.88%

Milling Wheat May 2015 241.00 +5.00 +2.12%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015 239.00 +2.00 +0.84%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 240.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015 323.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015 313.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 318.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2015 203.00 +1.00 +0.50%
Barley Jul 2015 203.00 +1.00 +0.50%
Barley Oct 2015 188.00 +1.00 +0.53%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans May 2015 967.75 +0.5 +0.05%
Soybeans Jul 2015 972.75 +0.5 +0.05%
Soybeans Aug 2015 972 +0.75 +0.08%
Soybeans Sep 2015 958 +1.25 +0.13%
Soybeans Nov 2015 949.25 +0.5 +0.05%
Soybeans Jan 2016 954 +0.5 +0.05%

Soybean Meal May 2015 323.2 +1.8 +0.56%
Soybean Meal Jul 2015 322.3 +1.9 +0.59%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 320.7 +1.6 +0.50%

Soybean Oil May 2015 30.49 -0.11 -0.36%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015 30.72 -0.11 -0.36%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 30.81 -0.1 -0.32%

Corn May 2015 394.5 +3.5 +0.90%
Corn Jul 2015 402.5 +3.5 +0.88%
Corn Sep 2015 410 +3.5 +0.86%
Corn Dec 2015 418.25 +3.5 +0.84%
Corn Mar 2016 427 +3.25 +0.77%

Oats May 2015 269.75 -2.5 -0.92%
Oats Jul 2015 272.5 -1.25 -0.46%
Oats Sep 2015 273.75 -2.25 -0.82%

Oats Dec 2015 275 -2.25 -0.81%
Oats Mar 2016 281.75 +0.5 +0.18%

Wheat May 2015 530.25 +22.5 +4.43%
Wheat Jul 2015 533.25 +21.25 +4.15%
Wheat Sep 2015 542.25 +21.25 +4.08%
Wheat Dec 2015 555.25 +20.25 +3.79%
Wheat Mar 2016 567.75 +19.5 +3.56%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2015 590.75 +15.75 +2.74%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 595.5 +15.25 +2.63%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 602.75 +15.5 +2.64%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 613.25 +16 +2.68%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 624.75 +15.75 +2.59%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 576.25 +23.25 +4.20%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 580.75 +23 +4.12%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 591 +22.25 +3.91%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 604.75 +20.75 +3.55%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 615.25 +19.75 +3.32%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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