A falling US dollar and rising Canadian loonie led to rising U.S. crop futures but falling canola prices on Friday.
May canola closed at $460.90 a tonne, down $4.10 and November closed at $444.90, down $4.60 as the loonie rose by about one cent US.
For the week, May climbed just $1.60 and November was unchanged.
Currency fluctuation accounted for most of the movement in grain prices this week although concerns about dry weather in the U.S. Plains added strength to wheat.
Currency markets dissected this week’s statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve. It had in the past said it would be “patient” about raising interest rates.
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This week it dropped the words “patient” but on the other hand appeared to put more emphasis on letting key economic indicators guide the bank in it decision regarding rate hikes.
The key indicators are employment growth, wage growth, core inflation (with the effects of food and energy removed) and consumer and investor expectations about inflation.
The changing perceptions about the Fed statement led to volatility in the value of the U.S. dollar but by the end of the week it was settling down on ideas that the interest rate hike would likely not happen in June but perhaps in September.
The stronger U.S. dollar midweek pushed corn and soybeans lower, but they began to recover at the end of the week as the dollar stepped back. A stronger American dollar works against U.S. export sales.
May soybeans were almost unchanged, slipping only US0.25 cents a bushel over the week.
May corn rose 4.5 cents a bushel or about one percent on the week.
Canola fluctuated with the currency changes and with the soy complex, but there was no fundamental news to seriously change the outlook.
The market is mostly marking time, waiting for the USDA planting intentions report March 31.
Informa today forecast US corn plantings at 88.537 million acres and soybeans at 87.485, both down slightly from its forecast in January.
It sees 13.116 million acres of spring wheat up 0.7 percent over last year.
It sees 1.965 million acres of durum, a whopping 41 percent increase over 1.398 million last year, which was a small crop.
Canadian canola crushers had a very strong week, crushing 160,185 tonnes, an increase of 20.4 percent over the week before for a crush capacity use of 87.6 percent.
It was likely the largest one-week crush ever.
The new Cargill crushing plant at Camrose, Alta., will start taking deliveries from farmers March 24.
It is not yet known when the plant, which will be able to crush 2,500 tonnes of canola a day at full capacity, will start processing or when there will be a grand opening.
Minneapolis May spring wheat rose 22 cents a bushel over the week or almost four percent.
The seven-day forecast sees little-to-no rain accumulation in the western half of the southern Plains.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.76 to US$45.72 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US79.40 cents, up from 78.47 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2595.
In late afternoon trade, the Dow was up more than one percent while the TSX composite was up about a half percent.
ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne
Canola May 2015 460.90 -4.10 -0.88%
Canola Jul 2015 457.90 -3.10 -0.67%
Canola Nov 2015 444.90 -4.60 -1.02%
Canola Jan 2016 446.10 -4.90 -1.09%
Canola Mar 2016 448.30 -4.90 -1.08%
Milling Wheat May 2015 245.00 +6.00 +2.51%
Milling Wheat Jul 2015 246.00 +6.00 +2.50%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 250.00 +6.00 +2.46%
Durum Wheat May 2015 323.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2015 313.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 318.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2015 196.00 +8.00 +4.26%
Barley Jul 2015 196.00 +6.00 +3.16%
Barley Oct 2015 187.00 +6.00 +3.31%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2015 973.75 +12 +1.25%
Soybeans Jul 2015 978 +11.25 +1.16%
Soybeans Aug 2015 977.25 +11.25 +1.16%
Soybeans Sep 2015 962.5 +10 +1.05%
Soybeans Nov 2015 956.25 +10 +1.06%
Soybeans Jan 2016 961 +10 +1.05%
Soybean Meal May 2015 324 +4.7 +1.47%
Soybean Meal Jul 2015 321.9 +4.6 +1.45%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 320.6 +4.5 +1.42%
Soybean Oil May 2015 30.68 +0.06 +0.20%
Soybean Oil Jul 2015 30.89 +0.06 +0.19%
Soybean Oil Aug 2015 30.95 +0.05 +0.16%
Corn May 2015 385 +11.5 +3.08%
Corn Jul 2015 392.75 +11.25 +2.95%
Corn Sep 2015 400.25 +10.75 +2.76%
Corn Dec 2015 409.25 +10.25 +2.57%
Corn Mar 2016 418.75 +10.25 +2.51%
Oats May 2015 279 +6 +2.20%
Oats Jul 2015 279.5 +4.75 +1.73%
Oats Sep 2015 281 +4.25 +1.54%
Oats Dec 2015 282.75 +5 +1.80%
Oats Mar 2016 285 +2.25 +0.80%
Wheat May 2015 530 +18 +3.52%
Wheat Jul 2015 533.75 +18 +3.49%
Wheat Sep 2015 542.75 +18 +3.43%
Wheat Dec 2015 556 +17.5 +3.25%
Wheat Mar 2016 568.5 +17 +3.08%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2015 589.5 +16.75 +2.92%
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 593.75 +16.5 +2.86%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 601.5 +16.5 +2.82%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 611.75 +16.5 +2.77%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 623 +16.5 +2.72%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat May 2015 569.5 +19.25 +3.50%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 575 +19 +3.42%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 586.25 +18.75 +3.30%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 600.5 +17.25 +2.96%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 611.75 +16.5 +2.77%
