Winnipeg – ICE Futures canola contracts were higher for the third straight session, as supportive nearby technical signals brought in speculative buying interest.
Recent weakness in the Canadian dollar was also supportive, while improving basis levels in the countryside were said to be a sign of solid end user demand.
However, concerns over a possible slowdown in exports to China, as Canada and China remain in the middle of a diplomatic dispute, kept a lid on the advances.
A softer tone in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans for most of the session also put some pressure on canola.
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About 27,419 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 29,742 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 17,064 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade held near unchanged on Thursday, finishing with small gains in the most active front months.
The International Grains Council released updated supply/demand estimates, lowering their world soybean production estimate for the year by 4 million tonnes, to 363 million, with hot and dry weather cutting into Brazilian yields behind the revision. However, total world production is still expected to be about 22 million tonnes above the previous year’s level, with projected world ending stocks also rising.
Uncertainty over Chinese demand kept some caution in the market, as exports from the United States may not be able to see much increase even if some sort of agreement is reached.
Brazil’s harvest is already underway, and new crop beans are moving from the country’s ports. While dryness concerns remain somewhat supportive, the latest forecasts call for more moisture in some of the dry regions.
CORN futures were lower on the day, as the market continued to back away from recent gains to trade in the middle of its well established range.
The IGC pegged world corn production this year at 1.076 billion tonnes, which would be up by 4 million from an earlier estimate and 29 million tonnes above the year-ago level. However, the world corn carryout is expected to tighten to 271 million tonnes, from 304 million in 2017/18, due to increased consumption.
WHEAT futures were mixed Thursday, with losses in the Chicago and Kansas City winter wheats, and a firmer tone in Minneapolis spring wheat.
The IGC estimated 2018/19 global wheat production at 737 million tonnes, which would be down by about 30 million from the previous year. However, with many 2019/20 winter wheat crops already in the ground for the next marketing year, production for 2019/20 is forecast to rise back to 751 million tonnes.
Signs of improving export demand for U.S. wheat, coupled with talk that Russia may be putting in measures to limit exports, were supportive.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 51 cents at US$53.13 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.90 cents, down from 74.92 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3351.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.
Canola Mar 19 487.00s +1.10 +0.23%
Canola May 19 495.80s +1.40 +0.28%
Canola Jul 19 503.80s +1.30 +0.26%
Canola Nov 19 501.50s +0.70 +0.14%
Canola Jan 20 506.20s +0.70 +0.14%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 19 916-0s +1-0 +0.11%
Soybeans May 19 929-6s +1-0 +0.11%
Soybeans Jul 19 942-4s +0-6 +0.08%
Soybeans Aug 19 947-4s +0-6 +0.08%
Soybeans Sep 19 949-6s +0-4 +0.05%
Soybean Meal Mar 19 312.3s -0.6 -0.19%
Soybean Meal May 19 316.2s -0.4 -0.13%
Soybean Meal Jul 19 320.2s -0.3 -0.09%
Soybean Oil Mar 19 29.51s +0.13 +0.44%
Soybean Oil May 19 29.80s +0.12 +0.40%
Soybean Oil Jul 19 30.11s +0.13 +0.43%
Corn Mar 19 377-0s -1-6 -0.46%
Corn May 19 385-4s -1-6 -0.45%
Corn Jul 19 393-4s -1-6 -0.44%
Corn Sep 19 396-4s -1-2 -0.31%
Corn Dec 19 400-6s -1-4 -0.37%
Oats Mar 19 290-6s -4-0 -1.36%
Oats May 19 288-2s -5-2 -1.79%
Oats Jul 19 287-6s -4-6 -1.62%
Oats Sep 19 280-6s -3-0 -1.06%
Oats Dec 19 273-0s -5-2 -1.89%
Wheat Mar 19 521-4s -4-4 -0.86%
Wheat May 19 528-2s -3-4 -0.66%
Wheat Jul 19 534-0s -3-4 -0.65%
Wheat Sep 19 542-2s -3-4 -0.64%
Wheat Dec 19 555-2s -3-2 -0.58%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 19 576-2s +0-6 +0.13%
Spring Wheat May 19 579-6s +0-4 +0.09%
Spring Wheat Jul 19 585-6s unch unch
Spring Wheat Sep 19 592-2s -0-2 -0.04%
Spring Wheat Dec 19 604-0s -0-4 -0.08%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 511-4s -3-4 -0.68%
Hard Red Wheat May 19 521-0s -3-2 -0.62%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 530-2s -2-6 -0.52%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 541-0s -3-2 -0.60%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 556-4s -2-6 -0.49%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Feb 19 125.350s -0.200 -0.16%
Live Cattle Apr 19 126.475s -0.025 -0.02%
Live Cattle Jun 19 117.000s +0.150 +0.13%
Feeder Cattle Jan 19 143.775s +0.750 +0.52%
Feeder Cattle Mar 19 144.325s +0.675 +0.47%
Feeder Cattle Apr 19 145.375s +0.700 +0.48%
Lean Hogs Feb 19 59.825s -0.950 -1.56%
Lean Hogs Apr 19 63.500s -1.350 -2.08%
Lean Hogs May 19 70.300s -0.975 -1.37%
