Canola stronger ahead of U.S. Thanksgiving

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Published: November 21, 2018

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ICE Futures canola contracts were stronger on Wednesday, as spillover from a rally in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil provided support.

Speculative short-covering contributed to the gains, as traders squared positions ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. Markets in the country will be closed Thursday, while canola will trade its normal hours.

Recent weakness in the Canadian dollar was also supportive, although the currency was firmer on Wednesday.

Canola remains relatively expensive compared to other oilseeds, which tempered the upside, according to a broker. The overall technical trend was also still bearish, making any gains a selling opportunity from a chart standpoint.

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(Photo courtesy Canada Beef Inc.)

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As the harvest in southern Alberta presses on, a broker said that is one of the factors pulling feed prices lower in the region. Darcy Haley, vice-president of Ag Value Brokers in Lethbridge, added that lower cattle numbers in feedlots, plentiful amounts of grass for cattle to graze and a lacklustre export market also weighed on feed prices.

About 20,258 canola contracts traded, which compares with Tuesday when 20,121 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 14,340 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade showed some modes strength on Wednesday, amid heightened optimism over the possibility for improving trade relations between the United States and China.

However, there was still little fire beyond the optimistic trade deal smoke, which tempered the upside ahead of next week’s G20 summit in Argentina.

Gains in crude oil and the resulting bounce in soyoil also provided some spillover support for beans.

Good South American production prospects and increased concerns over the African Swine Fever in China also put some pressure on values.

U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and only trade for reduced hours on Friday. Pre-holiday positioning accounted for some of the activity.

CORN futures settled near unchanged, with little fresh news to provide direction as traders adjusted positions ahead of the holiday.

Seeding operations were running ahead of normal in Argentina, with 55 per cent of intended corn acres already in the ground, according to reports out of the country. That compares with the average for this time of year of 43 per cent.

WHEAT futures were mixed, with gains in Minneapolis spring wheat and losses in the winter wheat contracts.

Large world supplies coupled with limited demand for U.S. wheat kept bids under pressure ahead of the holiday, with Russian wheat still competing on the export market.

Concerns over seeding delays for the last of the U.S. winter wheat still to be planted were slightly supportive, although conditions remain relatively favourable for the crops already in the ground.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up $1.20 at US$54.63 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.36 cents, down from 75.42 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3270.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Jan 19 479.00s +1.80 +0.38%

Canola Mar 19 487.20s +1.80 +0.37%

Canola May 19 495.30s +1.90 +0.39%

Canola Jul 19 500.40s +1.70 +0.34%

Canola Nov 19 495.50s -0.70 -0.14%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 19 883-0s +2-0 +0.23%

Soybeans Mar 19 896-6s +2-2 +0.25%

Soybeans May 19 909-6s +2-0 +0.22%

Soybeans Jul 19 922-2s +2-2 +0.24%

Soybeans Aug 19 926-4s +2-0 +0.22%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 18 306.6s -0.5 -0.16%

Soybean Meal Jan 19 308.7s -0.5 -0.16%

Soybean Meal Mar 19 310.8s -0.9 -0.29%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 18 27.80s +0.46 +1.68%

Soybean Oil Jan 19 27.99s +0.47 +1.71%

Soybean Oil Mar 19 28.25s +0.47 +1.69%

 

Corn Dec 18 361-6s +0-4 +0.14%

Corn Mar 19 372-6s +0-4 +0.13%

Corn May 19 380-4s +0-4 +0.13%

Corn Jul 19 387-2s +0-4 +0.13%

Corn Sep 19 390-6s +0-6 +0.19%

 

Oats Dec 18 291-4s -12-2 -4.03%

Oats Mar 19 294-4s -9-0 -2.97%

Oats May 19 294-6s -5-4 -1.83%

Oats Jul 19 286-6s unch unch

Oats Sep 19 279-0s +0-6 +0.27%

 

Wheat Dec 18 498-6s -2-0 -0.40%

Wheat Mar 19 506-6s -1-6 -0.34%

Wheat May 19 513-2s -2-0 -0.39%

Wheat Jul 19 521-4s -2-2 -0.43%

Wheat Sep 19 532-2s -2-4 -0.47%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 18 572-0s +2-2 +0.39%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 572-0s +1-6 +0.31%

Spring Wheat May 19 578-2s +1-2 +0.22%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 586-6s +1-2 +0.21%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 595-4s +1-2 +0.21%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 469-0s -4-0 -0.85%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 493-0s -4-2 -0.85%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 504-6s -4-2 -0.83%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 516-4s -4-2 -0.82%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 530-2s -4-4 -0.84%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Dec 18 116.400s +0.700 +0.61%

Live Cattle Feb 19 120.750s +1.025 +0.86%

Live Cattle Apr 19 122.600s +1.025 +0.84%

 

Feeder Cattle Jan 19 148.625s +1.750 +1.19%

Feeder Cattle Mar 19 145.175s +1.025 +0.71%

Feeder Cattle Apr 19 145.375s +0.875 +0.61%

 

Lean Hogs Dec 18 58.275s -0.700 -1.19%

Lean Hogs Feb 19 66.175s -0.950 -1.42%

Lean Hogs Apr 19 71.150s -0.525 -0.73%

 

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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