WINNIPEG – ICE Futures canola contracts were weaker on Friday, with the spread weighing on values. A Winnipeg-based trader commented rolling out of May into July was a major feature.
Also weighing on values were: China’s ban on canola imports from Canada, a huge South American soybean crop, and farmers in the United States switching from corn to planting soybeans this year.
This week’s acreage report from Statistics Canada provided some support. Canola acres were projected to fall by 1.5 million, for 21.3 million acres this year.
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Although the Canadian dollar was rising on Friday, it remained well below 75 U.S. cents. The loonie was approximately 74.30 by midafternoon Friday.
As of Week 38 of the 2018/19 crop year, Canada has exported more than 6.8 million tonnes of canola. That’s 10 per cent less than this time last year.
There were 31,661 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 35,492 contracts changed hands.
SOYBEAN, soyoil and soymeal futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were weaker on Friday. There are concerns regarding a weakened export demand for United States soybeans, according to Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm Pro.
Last month, China imported nearly 2.8 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil, up 20 per cent year-over-year. Soybean imports from the United States were about 1.5 million tonnes, approximately half of that in March 2018.
For contrast, Canada last month exported about 205,800 tonnes of soybeans to China compared to about 70,000 tonnes in March 2018.
On Thursday, China warned that pork prices could spike by 70 per cent later this year due to sharp reductions of its hog population. African swine fever has resulted in the culling of approximately 40 million hogs. That number could jump to 200 million, according to a projection from Rabobank. African swine fever is almost always fatal to hogs. China has about half of the world’s hogs.
Also on Thursday, the International Grains Commission (IGC) projected global grain production for the 2019/20 crop year to reach 2.178 billion tonnes. That’s an increase of 3 million tonnes. Ending stocks have been estimated at 611 million tonnes, up by 8 million tonnes.
Soybeans for the current crop year were revised by the IGC to 362 million tonnes, by 3 million. For the 2019/20 crop year, the IGC has called for production to be 361 million tonnes.
CORN futures were up slightly on Friday, as traders were covering large short positions.
The Buenos Aires Grain Commission reported today that 28 per cent of Argentina’s corn crop has been harvested. Production estimates have remained at 46 million tonnes.
The IGC estimated 2019/20 global corn production to hit 1.125 billion tonnes, an increase of 1 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures were mostly weaker on Friday, with losses in Minneapolis and Kansas City. Chicago finished with small gains. Traders have concerns about large domestic and global wheat supplies.
Dry conditions in Saskatchewan and Alberta, along with parts of Montana and North Dakota could affect wheat production. Also, dryness has been forecast for Germany, one of the European Union’s largest grain producers.
Above normal precipitation is expected for Australia’s main wheat-growing areas, ending fears of drought. Also, good precipitations levels are expected for the Black Sea region, boosting its grain production.
The IGC predicted global wheat production for the coming crop year to reach 762 million tonnes, an increase of 3 million tonnes.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $2.29 at US$62.80 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.31 cents, down from 74.18 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3458
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Name / Contract Last Change % Change
Canola May 19 439.50s -2.90 -0.66%
Canola Jul 19 446.20s -5.10 -1.13%
Canola Nov 19 459.80s -3.90 -0.84%
Canola Jan 20 466.60s -3.90 -0.83%
Canola Mar 20 472.80s -3.90 -0.82%
Soybean May 19 853-6s -5-4 -0.64%
Soybean Jul 19 867-0s -5-6 -0.66%
Soybean Aug 19 873-2s -5-4 -0.63%
Soybean Sep 19 878-2s -5-6 -0.65%
Soybean Nov 19 887-6s -5-4 -0.62%
Soybean Meal May 19 299.9s -6.1 -1.99%
Soybean Meal Jul 19 303.7s -5.9 -1.91%
Soybean Meal Aug 19 304.8s -5.7 -1.84%
Soybean Oil May 19 27.52s -0.12 -0.43%
Soybean Oil Jul 19 27.84s -0.10 -0.36%
Soybean Oil Aug 19 27.99s -0.09 -0.32%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Corn May 19 351-2s +3-6 +1.08%
Corn Jul 19 361-2s +4-0 +1.12%
Corn Sep 19 369-4s +4-0 +1.09%
Corn Dec 19 380-6s +3-4 +0.93%
Corn Mar 20 395-4s +3-0 +0.76%
Oats May 19 308-6s +7-6 +2.57%
Oats Jul 19 294-6s +6-2 +2.17%
Oats Sep 19 276-6s +5-4 +2.03%
Oats Dec 19 263-0s +2-6 +1.06%
Oats Mar 20 254-0s +3-2 +1.30%
Wheat May 19 435-0s +0-2 +0.06%
Wheat Jul 19 442-4s +1-0 +0.23%
Wheat Sep 19 450-2s +1-0 +0.22%
Wheat Dec 19 467-2s +1-2 +0.27%
Wheat Mar 20 483-6s +1-6 +0.36%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 19 498-0s -7-0 -1.39%
Spring Wheat Jul 19 511-6s -2-0 -0.39%
Spring Wheat Sep 19 521-0s -2-0 -0.38%
Spring Wheat Dec 19 535-6s -2-4 -0.46%
Spring Wheat Mar 20 550-2s -2-6 -0.50%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat May 19 399-6s -4-4 -1.11%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 407-4s -4-0 -0.97%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 418-0s -3-2 -0.77%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 439-6s -2-6 -0.62%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 461-6s -2-0 -0.43%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Apr 19 124.550s +0.500 +0.40%
Live Cattle Jun 19 115.050s -0.325 -0.28%
Live Cattle Aug 19 112.650s -0.275 -0.24%
Feeder Cattle May 19 143.950s +0.400 +0.28%
Feeder Cattle Aug 19 152.850s -0.400 -0.26%
Feeder Cattle Sep 19 153.850s -0.475 -0.31%
Lean Hogs May 19 87.000s -0.850 -0.97%
Lean Hogs Jun 19 88.750s -1.025 -1.14%
Lean Hogs Jul 19 93.450s -1.200 -1.27%
