Drier weather, profit taking and grain company hedging pressured Winnipeg canola prices lower Tuesday.The forecast is for mostly sunny weather this week on the Prairies. Analysts are forecasting a crop of 10 to 10.5 million tonnes, but frost is the wild card because the crop is generally a week or two late.Crop futures received early support when private crop analysts SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production to 70 to 75 million tonnes and said there was a good chance it could fall to less than 70 million. A couple of weeks ago, it forecast 77 to 81 million tonnes.SovEcon also speculated that Russia might restrict exports, which caused wheat futures to rise again. However, they retreated when the Russian government quickly denied it had such plans and estimated the crop at “less than 80 million tonnes.”AkrAgroConsult, a private forecaster, lowered its estimate of Ukraine’s rapeseed crop to 1.5 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 1.6 million. It harvested 1.845 million last year.Reuters News Service is consulting 20 analysts weekly for their estimate of U.S. corn yield. Today’s poll revealed an average of 163.8 bushels per acre, up from 163.5 bu. last week and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s current forecast of 163.5 bu.This reflects generally good growing conditions in the U.S. Midwest, helping corn and soybeans.The U.S. Wheat Quality Council runs a tour of spring wheat crops each year. The tour began today and found that yields in southeastern North Dakota averaged 44 bu. an acre, above the five-year average of 35.3 bu. but lower than last year’s 44.7 bu. Northern plains weather has been close to ideal.Dan Basse, president of the AgResource consultancy in Chicago, told Reuters that Australia’s wheat crop could climb to 23.1 to 24 million tonnes. That is higher than the official Australian estimate of 22 million tonnes and above the 21.7 million tonnes produced last year.In Winnipeg, November canola fell $2.20 per tonne to $449.40 on 7,580 trades.The January contract fell $3.10 to $451.40 on 583 trades.The previous day’s best basis was $5 per tonne under the November contract in the par region, according to the Winnipeg ICE Futures daily report.The 14-day Relative Strength Index for November was 67 according to BarChart.com. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.55 cents US, down from 96.97 cents at noon the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0357 Cdn.Winnipeg October barley was steady and untraded at $156.50 and December was $156.50.Chicago August soybeans fell 0.25 cent to $9.98 US per bushel. September fell 1.75 cents to $9.73. New-crop November fell 0.5 cents to $9.655.September oats fell 4.5 cents to $2.465 per bu. December oats fell 4.25 cents to $2.58 per bu. In New York, crude oil for September delivery fell $1.48 to $77.50 per barrel.
Canola prices edged lower
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