Canola market ignores frost

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Published: June 1, 2010

Winnipeg canola futures fell Tuesday on grain company hedge selling.There was a large volume of trade as funds rolled July contracts into November.Lack of fresh export business weighed on the market.There were pockets of frost in several areas of the Prairies last night, but the market seems largely unconcerned about frost, flooded fields or seeding delays. So far, the market attitude is that the crop will be seeded and will benefit from the good moisture.Also weighing on canola prices were weaker soybeans and crude oil. The U.S. Midwest is enjoying ideal growing conditions.As expected, Bank of Canada raised the benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to 0.5 percent today, the first rate increase since 2007.The increase was expected. It came following better-than-expected gross domestic production growth figures Monday.The increase is designed to splash a little cool water on the hot economy to restrict inflation. However, the bank said concerns about financial instability in Europe mean that it is not a given that rates will steadily rise in the coming months.The most active July canola contract fell 30 cents to $373.20 per tonne on 10,607 trades. The previous day’s best basis narrowed to -$2.85 per tonne off the July contract in the par region, according to the Winnipeg ICE Futures daily report.The 14-day Relative Strength Index for July canola was 44, according to BarChart.com. The rule of thumb is that an RSI of 30 indicates an oversold market and 70 indicates overbought.New crop November canola fell $2.20 to $378.20 per tonne on 7,053 trades.The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.43 cents US, down from 95.58 cents at noon the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0479 Cdn.Winnipeg July barley was untraded at $147.50. December was untraded at $150, with 10 outstanding contracts.Chicago July soybeans fell 5.75 cents US to $9.32 per bushel, while new-crop November fell five cents to $9.0275.July oats rose 3.25 cents to $1.9425 per bu. December oats rose 2.75 cents to $2.1325 per bu. In New York, crude oil for July delivery fell $1.39 to $72.58 per barrel.The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Tuesday that 97 percent of corn was planted as of May 30 and 85 percent had emerged.Last year 92 percent had been planted and 71 percent had emerged.For soybeans, 74 percent was planted and 46 percent emerged. Last year, 63 percent was planted and 33 percent was emerged.For winter wheat, 65 percent of the crop is in good to excellent condition, up from last year’s rate of 45 percent.For corn, 76 percent is good to excellent compared to 70 percent last year.

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