Pushed and pulled by supply estimates and weather worries, Winnipeg canola futures traded in a wide range Friday, settling slightly lower.In addition to rain delays, there is strong potential for the first widespread frost of the fall this coming week, which could hurt canola yields and quality.The forecast was supportive of price, but was offset by a U.S. Department of Agriculture report that increased the estimate of the U.S. soybean crop.Also weighing on prices was lingering concern over the size of the canola carryover into the current crop year, the second largest ever. Analysts expected a number less than 1.5 million tonnes, but Statistics Canada put the carryover at 2.12 million. It appears the 2009 crop was bigger than had been assumed.In Winnipeg, November canola fell $1.20 per tonne to $458.10 on 15,835 trades.For the week, the contract fell 0.7 percent or $3 per tonne.The January contract fell 90 cents to $463.30 on 3,947 trades.The previous day’s best basis was steady at $15.13 per tonne under the November contract in the par region, according to the Winnipeg ICE Futures daily report.The 14-day Relative Strength Index for November fell to 44 according to BarChart.com. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.54 cents US, down from 96.82 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0358 Cdn.Canadian employers created 35,800 jobs last month, but the unemployment rate rose to 8.1 percent from eight percent in July because more people were looking for work. Troubling is the fact that only the educational sector increased hiring in August while the rest of the economy lost jobs.The TSX composite closed at 12,097.09, up 63.56 points, and the S&P 500 closed at 1,109.55, up 5.37 points. For the week, the major U.S. exchanges were up but the TSX was down slightly.Winnipeg October barley was steady at $170. December was unchanged at $180.Chicago September soybeans fell 14.25 cents to $10.235 US per bushel. New-crop November fell 15 cents to $10.31.A good gain in corn, rising 7.5 cents to 4.7825 in the December contract, helped lift oats. Harvest problems in Canada added support.September oats rose 15.25 cents to $3.17 per bu. December oats rose 9.25 cents to $3.24 per bu.In New York, crude oil for October delivery rose $2.20 to $76.45 per barrel.The USDA today said the United States would have the tightest corn supply-to-demand ratio in 15 years at the end of the current crop year because of smaller than expected crop and strong demand.It also lowered its world wheat production forecast, but not as much as traders expected.For soybeans, USDA raised its estimate of the crop to 3.483 billion bushels from 3.433 billion last month. The increase was due to a yield estimate of 44.7 bu. per acre, up from 44 in August.The USDA pegged U.S. corn at 162.5 bu. per acre, down from its August estimate of 165 bu. after hot, dry weather last month hurt the crop. The total U.S. corn crop was forecast at 13.16 billion bu., down from 13.365 billion in August.World wheat production was put at 643.01 million tonnes, down from its August estimate of 645.73 million. However, analysts had expected it to go even lower, to 641.44 million tonnes.
Canola loses $3 on week
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