Canola little changed – for Jul. 22, 2010

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Published: July 22, 2010

Canola futures were higher for most of the day, but closed little changed from the previous day.

Early support came from concerns about world rapeseed supply with production problems in Canada and Europe, but profit taking and a stronger Canadian dollar later wiped out the gains.

Oilseeds benefited from spillover support from wheat, which climbed on worries about the size of the European and Black Sea crops.

The United States reported stronger than expected weekly soybean export sales.

The Alberta crop report on July 20 said 75 percent of spring cereals and 70 percent of canola are in good to excellent condition. Crop conditions in the southern and central areas of the Peace Region have deteriorated over the last week because of dryness.

Crop development remains 10 to 20 days behind normal in the southern region, and seven to 10 days behind normal in the central, northeastern and northwestern regions. This is mainly because of delayed seeding and to some extent cool, damp weather conditions.

The Saskatchewan crop report on July 20 said warmer weather had advanced crops, but most are still a week or two behind and 71 percent of canola is in fair to good condition, down two percentage points from the previous week.

In Winnipeg, November canola rose 10 cents per tonne to $460.90 on 6,198 trades.

The January contract fell 20 cents to $463.40 on 947 trades.

The previous day’s best basis was $5 per tonne under the November contract in the par region, according to the Winnipeg ICE Futures daily report.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index for November was 89 according to BarChart.com. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an oversold market and 70 indicates an overbought market.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.38 cents US, up from 95.90 cents at noon the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0376.

Winnipeg October barley was steady and untraded at $156.50 and December was $156.50.

Chicago August soybeans rose 0.75 cents to $10.16 US per bushel. September was unchanged at $9.905. New crop November rose one cent to $9.795.

September oats fell 2.5 cents to $2.55 per bu. December oats fell 1.5 cents to $2.64 per bu.

In New York, crude oil for August delivery rose $2.74 to $79.30 per barrel.

Germany’s farming association, Deutschen Bauernverbandes, said initial harvest results indicate rapeseed yields in Europe’s largest producer will be down from last year. It also said wheat yields would be down by 10 to 20 percent.

The Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, a producer and merchant group, said the country’s rapeseed crop would fall to 1.5 million tonnes from last year’s 1.8 million.

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