Canola little changed as market awaits USDA report and weekend snow

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Published: February 22, 2012

Canola was narrowly mixed on Wednesday as the February rally sputtered.

March canola rose 10 cents to $558.40 per tonne. May fell 10 cents. New crop November rose 30 cents to $531.80.

Canola remains supported by strong domestic crush, which is running at near capacity, and good export demand.

The market was also aware of forecasts for snow this weekend in the southern Prairies that will slightly lessen the worries about the winter drought.

Regina is forecast to get five to 10 centimetres on Saturday and Swift Current 10-15 cm. Central and northern prairies are expected to get five cm or less.

• Movement in soybean futures was all about position squaring with corn in advance of USDA’s forecasts for seeded acreage due on Thursday.

• The USDA report might kick off the spring battle for acres. Also, some commentators, such as Reuters market analyst Gavin Maguire, think more speculative money will move into the grains market this spring, hoping to capitalize on expected increased late season demand for U.S. grain to make up for a reduced crop in South America.

However, rising prices could start to hurt demand. Also, if U.S. planting gets underway with good weather conditions, there could be a subsequent sharp retreat in prices.

• Wheat moved higher Wednesday on technical strength despite forecasts for significant snow this weekend in the dry U.S. northern plains.

Bismarck, North Dakota, is expected to get 10 to 15 cm of snow Saturday and Sunday. More than 20 cm are expected at Fargo.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Mar 12  $558.40, up $0.10  (+0.02%)

Canola May 12  $560.00, down $0.10  (-0.02%)

Canola Jul 12  $563.00, up $0.20  (+0.04%)

Canola Nov 12  $531.80, up $0.30  (+0.06%)

The previous trading day’s best basis in the par region was $8 per tonne off the March contract, said the ICE Futures Canada exchange in Winnipeg. Several crushing plants have positive basis.

The 14-day relative strength index was 79.

Western Barley Mar 12  $214.00, up $1.00  (+0.47%)

Western Barley May 12  $217.00 unchanged

Milling Wheat Oct 12  $264.00 unchanged

Milling Wheat Dec 12  $268.50 unchanged

Milling Wheat Mar 13       273.50 unchanged

Durum Wheat Oct 12  $265.90 unchanged

Durum Wheat Dec 12  $270.40 unchanged

Durum Wheat Mar 13       276.60 unchanged

Barley Oct 12  $182.40 unchanged

Barley Dec 12  $185.90 unchanged

Barley Mar 13       $187.40 unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans Mar 12  $12.7225, up 1.25 cents  (+0.10%)

Soybeans May 12  $12.7875, up 1.75  (+0.14%)

Soybeans Nov 12  $12.64, up 1.75  (+0.14%)

Corn Mar 12  $6.3825, up 8.75  (+1.39%)

Corn May 12  $6.4125, up 7.75  (+1.22%)

Corn Dec 12  $5.645, up 0.75  (+0.13%)

Oats Mar 12  $3.1925, down 1.25  (-0.39%)

Oats May 12  $3.1225, down 5.0       -1.58%)

Oats Dec 12  $3.19, up 1.0  (+0.31%)

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Mar 12  $8.1825, up 1.5 cents  (+0.18%)

Spring Wheat May 12  $8.195, up 6.5  (+0.80%)

Spring Wheat Dec 12  $7.955, up 7.5  (+0.95%)

Nearby light crude oil in New York settled at $106.28 a barrel, up three cents.

The Canadian dollar at noon was at par $1.0000 US, down from $1.0045 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.00 Cdn.

In an early tally, the Toronto Stock Exchange composite ended up 77.90 points, or 0.6 percent, at 12,701.26.

The Dow Jones industrial average dipped 7.57 points, or 0.06 percent, to 12,958.12. The S&P 500 Index fell 1.84 points, or 0.14 percent, to 1,360.37. The Nasdaq Composite lost 7.30 points, or 0.25 percent, to 2,941.27.

U.S. home resales rose to an 18-month high in January, pushing the supply of properties on the market to the lowest level in almost seven years.

However, the market lift from the housing news was muted by data from European purchasing managers showing unexpectedly weak activity in the region’s most powerful economies, Germany, and in France.

Also, there was unexpectedly weak data on China’s exports for this month.

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