Canola keeps dropping, soy up slightly

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: February 21, 2019

,

Winnipeg – ICE Futures canola contracts continued their downward slide on Wednesday, hitting fresh contract lows for the second-straight session.

Speculators were noted sellers as bearish technical signals kept the bias pointed lower.

Strength in the Canadian dollar, a lack of significant end user demand and steady farmer selling also weighed on values.

However, a turn higher in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and soyoil provided some underlying support. Short-covering at the lows also provided some support amid ideas canola was starting to look oversold.

Read Also

Photo: Getty Images Plus

Alberta crop conditions improve: report

Varied precipitation and warm temperatures were generally beneficial for crop development across Alberta during the week ended July 8, according to the latest provincial crop report released July 11.

About 36,687 canola contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 32,287 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 27,838 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade managed to settle with small gains on Wednesday, recovering from early losses by the close.

Optimism over trade talks underway between the United States and China this week provided some support.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Department of Agriculture will release six weeks of export data on Friday that was backlogged due to the government shutdown. Traders will be looking over the numbers closely for signs of just how many beans China bought over the past month.

The USDA is also holding its Annual Outlook Forum this week, with acreage estimates for 2019 out on Thursday. Average trade guesses are predicting soybean seedings in the U.S. of around 86.1 million acres, which would be down by three million on the year.

CORN futures were also higher on the day amid ideas that China may start buying more U.S. corn following recent comments from President Donald Trump.

Traders generally expect U.S. corn seedings to be up on the year in 2019, with average estimates coming in at around 91 million acres.

WHEAT futures were lower, seeing some follow through selling as U.S. wheat continued to try and uncover some demand. Bearish technical signals added to the declines.

Export demand remains soft, with the U.S. missing out on the latest Egyptian tender once again.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 83 cents at US$56.92 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.94 cents, up from 75.54 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3169.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Mar 19 470.90s -2.80 -0.59%

Canola May 19 479.30s -3.00 -0.62%

Canola Jul 19 486.60s -2.90 -0.59%

Canola Nov 19 490.50s -1.80 -0.37%

Canola Jan 20 496.40s -1.40 -0.28%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Mar 19 902-4s +1-6 +0.19%

Soybean May 19 916-0s +1-4 +0.16%

Soybean Jul 19 929-6s +1-6 +0.19%

Soybean Aug 19 935-2s +1-6 +0.19%

Soybean Sep 19 939-2s +2-0 +0.21%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 19 305.2s -0.2 -0.07%

Soybean Meal May 19 309.2s -0.3 -0.10%

Soybean Meal Jul 19 313.1s -0.3 -0.10%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 19 29.96s +0.22 +0.74%

Soybean Oil May 19 30.28s +0.20 +0.66%

Soybean Oil Jul 19 30.61s +0.20 +0.66%

 

Corn Mar 19 370-6s +1-0 +0.27%

Corn May 19 379-4s +1-4 +0.40%

Corn Jul 19 387-4s +1-4 +0.39%

Corn Sep 19 392-4s +1-6 +0.45%

Corn Dec 19 398-4s +1-6 +0.44%

 

Oats Mar 19 269-6s -0-2 -0.09%

Oats May 19 274-0s -1-4 -0.54%

Oats Jul 19 274-6s -2-4 -0.90%

Oats Sep 19 266-6s -2-4 -0.93%

Oats Dec 19 259-6s -1-4 -0.57%

 

Wheat Mar 19 480-6s -9-0 -1.84%

Wheat May 19 484-2s -8-0 -1.63%

Wheat Jul 19 488-2s -8-2 -1.66%

Wheat Sep 19 498-4s -7-4 -1.48%

Wheat Dec 19 513-4s -7-2 -1.39%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 19 548-6s -6-6 -1.22%

Spring Wheat May 19 548-2s -7-0 -1.26%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 552-2s -8-4 -1.52%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 560-6s -7-4 -1.32%

Spring Wheat Dec 19 574-6s -6-4 -1.12%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 450-0s -10-6 -2.33%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 458-0s -10-2 -2.19%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 468-4s -9-6 -2.04%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 481-0s -9-2 -1.89%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 499-2s -8-6 -1.72%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Feb 19 128.325s +0.450 +0.35%

Live Cattle Apr 19 129.200s +0.750 +0.58%

Live Cattle Jun 19 119.325s +0.725 +0.61%

 

Feeder Cattle Mar 19 143.875s +0.125 +0.09%

Feeder Cattle Apr 19 146.075s +0.075 +0.05%

Feeder Cattle May 19 147.000s unch unch

 

Lean Hogs Apr 19 52.975s -3.550 -6.28%

Lean Hogs May 19 63.025s -2.425 -3.71%

Lean Hogs Jun 19 72.750s -0.975 -1.32%

 

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

Markets at a glance

explore

Stories from our other publications