Canola holds amidst harvest uncertainty

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Published: September 24, 2018

ICE Futures canola contracts held near unchanged in thin and choppy activity on Monday, although the bias was lower at the closing bell.

Losses in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans accounted for some spillover selling pressure in canola, according to participants, with the Canadian oilseed still looking expensive compared to its United States counterpart.

However, cool and wet conditions across Western Canada were supportive. There was little relief in the forecasts, as the adverse weather continues to cause harvest delays for the crop still on the fields. Quality and yield downgrades are likely for the roughly 50-per cent of the canola still left to be harvested.

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Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada made several upward adjustments to its supply and demand estimates, after including the data from the Statistics Canada production update earlier this month.

The Canadian dollar was slightly weaker, which provided some support as well.

About 7,101 canola contracts traded, which compares with Friday when 12,630 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 3,608 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade posted losses on Monday, with the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China accounting for much of the selling pressure. The latest round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports went into effect today and China cancelled a planned round of talks.

Brazilian farmers are reportedly making a good start to seeding their next crop, which also weighed on values.

However, the USDA did announce a new private sale of 162,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations this morning.

CORN futures were stronger, as speculators covering short positions gave the market a boost. Harvest delaying weather across parts of the Midwest was also supportive.

Weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.2 million tonnes topped both the week ago and the year ago level.

WHEAT futures were higher, hitting their best levels of the past month on the back of speculative buying.

Persistent dryness concerns in Australia remained supportive, while the harvest delaying weather in parts of Canada also provided some support.

However, the U.S. continues to miss out on export opportunities.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up $1.30 at US$72.08 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.31 cents, down from 77.42 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2935.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Nov 18 489.30s -0.40 -0.08%

Canola Jan 19 496.10s -0.40 -0.08%

Canola Mar 19 502.40s -0.40 -0.08%

Canola May 19 506.90s -0.40 -0.08%

Canola Jul 19 510.60s -0.40 -0.08%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 18 841-0s -6-2 -0.74%

Soybeans Jan 19 855-2s -6-0 -0.70%

Soybeans Mar 19 868-4s -5-6 -0.66%

Soybeans May 19 882-0s -5-4 -0.62%

Soybeans Jul 19 892-6s -5-0 -0.56%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 18 304.7s -1.2 -0.39%

Soybean Meal Dec 18 307.5s -1.4 -0.45%

Soybean Meal Jan 19 308.7s -1.1 -0.36%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 18 28.26s +0.17 +0.61%

Soybean Oil Dec 18 28.52s +0.18 +0.64%

Soybean Oil Jan 19 28.77s +0.18 +0.63%

 

Corn Dec 18 360-4s +3-2 +0.91%

Corn Mar 19 372-4s +3-2 +0.88%

Corn May 19 380-2s +3-0 +0.80%

Corn Jul 19 385-6s +2-4 +0.65%

Corn Sep 19 390-0s +2-4 +0.65%

 

Oats Dec 18 259-2s +6-2 +2.47%

Oats Mar 19 264-0s +6-2 +2.42%

Oats May 19 267-6s +6-4 +2.49%

Oats Jul 19 271-2s +6-4 +2.46%

Oats Sep 19 274-2s +6-0 +2.24%

 

Wheat Dec 18 527-0s +5-2 +1.01%

Wheat Mar 19 545-4s +4-6 +0.88%

Wheat May 19 557-2s +4-2 +0.77%

Wheat Jul 19 559-2s +3-4 +0.63%

Wheat Sep 19 568-6s +3-2 +0.57%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 18 584-2s +1-6 +0.30%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 599-2s +1-6 +0.29%

Spring Wheat May 19 606-6s +1-2 +0.21%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 612-0s +0-2 +0.04%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 616-2s +0-4 +0.08%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 529-0s +3-6 +0.71%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 552-4s +3-6 +0.68%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 564-6s +3-4 +0.62%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 564-6s +4-0 +0.71%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 576-0s +4-4 +0.79%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 18 112.175s -0.900 -0.80%

Live Cattle Dec 18 117.000s -1.450 -1.22%

Live Cattle Feb 19 121.300s -0.950 -0.78%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 18 156.450s -0.500 -0.32%

Feeder Cattle Oct 18 156.300s -1.775 -1.12%

Feeder Cattle Nov 18 155.925s -1.875 -1.19%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 18 61.000s +0.700 +1.16%

Lean Hogs Dec 18 56.975s -0.425 -0.74%

Lean Hogs Feb 19 65.450s +0.525 +0.81%

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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