Canola hits new 15-month low

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Published: November 15, 2018

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ICE Futures canola contracts were mostly lower on Wednesday, with the most active months hitting their weakest levels since August 2017 as speculative selling weighed on values.

Some of the activity tied to spreading against Chicago Board of Trade soybeans, which were higher on the day.

The settlement below C$480 per tonne in the January contract was bearish from a technical standpoint, opening the door for a test of the next support level at C$475, according to a trader.

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However, without an outside catalyst, canola may be running out of room to the downside. End-user bargain hunting and a slowdown in farmer selling provided some support.

About 14,566 canola contracts traded, which compares with Tuesday when 10,942 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 7,594 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Wednesday, finding support from the slower-than-normal Midwestern harvest pace.

The United States soybean harvest was 88 per cent complete in the latest weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture report. That was up five points from the previous week, but off the average for this time of year of 93 per cent done.

The USDA also announced a flash sale of 148,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations this morning.

However, good crop weather in Brazil and Argentina tempered the upside in beans amid expectations for large South American crops this year.

CORN futures were narrowly mixed at the close. The U.S. corn harvest was 84 per cent done in the latest report, which was only three points off the average pace.

Forecasts are calling for relatively favourable Midwestern harvest weather over the next week.

The USDA announced a flash sale of 212,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico this morning, providing some support.

WHEAT futures were mostly lower, despite winter wheat seeding delays in some key wheat growing states.

U.S. winter wheat seedings were 89 per cent complete in the latest weekly USDA report, which compares with the 94 per cent average for this time of year. With it getting late in the season, there are ideas that some intended acres may be left unseeded this year. Emergence was also behind normal, at 77 per cent.

However, condition ratings for what is in the ground improved to 54 per cent good to excellent, up three points from last week.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 56 cents at US$56.25 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.56 cents, up from 75.52 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3235.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Nov 18  471.10s  -2.60  -0.55%

Canola Jan 19  478.20s  -2.60  -0.54%

Canola Mar 19  485.60s  -2.60  -0.53%

Canola May 19  493.30s  -2.40  -0.48%

Canola Jul 19  498.70s  -1.70  -0.34%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 18  870-4s  +3-2  +0.37%

Soybeans Jan 19  883-4s  +5-2  +0.60%

Soybeans Mar 19  896-6s  +5-0  +0.56%

Soybeans May 19  910-2s  +5-2  +0.58%

Soybeans Jul 19  923-2s  +5-2  +0.57%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 18  305.7s  +1.8  +0.59%

Soybean Meal Jan 19  307.6s  +1.8  +0.59%

Soybean Meal Mar 19  310.2s  +1.7  +0.55%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 18  27.57s  +0.02  +0.07%

Soybean Oil Jan 19  27.78s  +0.05  +0.18%

Soybean Oil Mar 19  28.07s  +0.05  +0.18%

 

Corn Dec 18  367-0s  +0-4  +0.14%

Corn Mar 19  378-0s  +0-2  +0.07%

Corn May 19  385-6s  unch  unch

Corn Jul 19  392-2s  -1-0  -0.25%

Corn Sep 19  393-6s  -1-0  -0.25%

 

Oats Dec 18  288-4s  +4-0  +1.41%

Oats Mar 19  289-4s  +4-0  +1.40%

Oats May 19  290-2s  +2-6  +0.96%

Oats Jul 19  289-0s  +2-2  +0.78%

Oats Sep 19  282-2s  +1-2  +0.44%

 

Wheat Dec 18  503-0s  -4-6  -0.94%

Wheat Mar 19  512-0s  -5-6  -1.11%

Wheat May 19  521-0s  -5-4  -1.04%

Wheat Jul 19  530-2s  -5-0  -0.93%

Wheat Sep 19  542-0s  -5-2  -0.96%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 18  576-0s  -2-2  -0.39%

Spring Wheat Mar 19  576-6s  -3-2  -0.56%

Spring Wheat May 19  584-6s  -3-2  -0.55%

Spring Wheat Jul 19  592-6s  -3-0  -0.50%

Spring Wheat Sep 19  601-0s  -2-6  -0.46%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18  481-0s  -5-4  -1.13%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19  504-2s  -5-2  -1.03%

Hard Red Wheat May 19  517-2s  -5-6  -1.10%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19  529-4s  -6-0  -1.12%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19  543-6s  -5-4  -1.00%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Dec 18  114.600s  -0.775  -0.67%

Live Cattle Feb 19  118.600s  -0.150  -0.13%

Live Cattle Apr 19  120.575s  -0.050  -0.04%

 

Feeder Cattle Nov 18  148.975s  unch  unch

Feeder Cattle Jan 19  146.975s  unch  unch

Feeder Cattle Mar 19  143.800s  -0.325  -0.23%

 

Lean Hogs Dec 18  57.000s  -0.300  -0.52%

Lean Hogs Feb 19  62.350s  +0.175  +0.28%

Lean Hogs Apr 19  67.750s  +0.025  +0.04%

 

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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