Grain and oilseed futures posted strong gains for a second day on Friday, as traders feel more accepting of risk.
Unconfirmed rumours continued to circulate about China buying U.S. corn.
Word from Japan was reassuring for exporters, despite its continuing nuclear crisis. The country has not cancelled grain contracts and ports in the south are filling in for damaged facilities in the north.
Canola futures were supported by additional snow this week on the Prairies with the heaviest accumulations in Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan. Cool temperatures are delaying the snow melt.
It was a volatile week, but by today’s close May canola rose $14.70 per tonne compared to the close last Friday.
American farmers are also worried about a late spring and more snow is forecast for the northern plains next Tuesday. It is still dry in the red winter wheat belt.
A seeded acreage forecast from Informa supported corn and soybean futures.
The private forecaster increased its estimate of U.S. corn area to 91.76 million, but that was below the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast of 92 million.
Allendale’s forecast is 91.29 million.
Informa lowered its soybean estimate to 75.27 million acres from 76.65 million in its January forecast. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast is 78 million acres and Allendale forecasts 77.19 million.
Markets were also watching developments in Libya where the government announced a cease fire after the United Nations voted to impose a no fly zone over the country and take measures to stop Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi from attacking his citizens.
The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 120,130 tonnes of canola in the week ending March 16, up 2.4 percent from the week before.
Russia’s deputy prime minister lowered the forecast for that country’s 2011 crop to 84-85 million tonnes from the previous forecast of 85-87 million. A leading Russian analyst SovEcon has a lower forecast of 75-85 million tonne. The crop will be larger than last year’s drought ravaged harvest but not enough to create a comfortable surplus. This raises the likelihood that Russia will extend its moratorium on grain exports.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola May 11 $572.80, up $10.70
Canola Jul 11 $581.10, up $10.60
Canola Nov 11 $560, up $9.50
Canola Jan 12 $565.10, up $9.30
The previous day’s best basis was steady at $16.13 under the May contract according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.
The May contract 14-day Relative Strength Index was 49. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.
Western Barley May 11 $200 unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans May 11 $13.625, up 27.25 cents
Soybeans Jul 11 $13.715, up 28 cents
Soybeans Nov 11 $13.34, up 31.75 cents
Corn May 11 $6.835, up 37 cents
Corn Jul 11 $6.90, up 36.25 cents
Oats May 11 $3.52, up 17 cents
Oats Jul 11 $3.605, up 17.25 cents
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat May 11 $8.675, up 12.75 cents
Spring Wheat Jul 11 $8.7625, up 11 cents
Spring Wheat Dec 11 $8.93, up 15 cents
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell 35 cents to $101.07 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0158 US, up from $1.0116 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 98.44 cents Cdn.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index rose 43.48 points to 13,789.63.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 5.49 points to 1,279.21.
For the week, the TSX rose 0.8 percent, the Dow fell 1.5 percent, the S&P was off 1.9 percent and the Nasdaq, sank 2.6 percent.
