Winnipeg – The ICE Futures canola market settled with small gains on Wednesday, after trading to both sides of unchanged in choppy activity as the market reacted to Statistics Canada’s first survey-based production estimate of the crop year.
Statistics Canada pegged the 2019/20 canola crop at 18.45 million tonnes, which would be down by nearly two million tonnes from the previous year and at the lower end of market expectations.
The headline number gave an initial boost to the market, but the early buying interest quickly subsided amid expectations that actual production will be revised higher as conditions improved since the survey was conducted.
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The buying eventually returned to canola, with strength in the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex and weakness in the Canadian dollar behind some of the eventual gains.
About 14,021 canola contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 10,852 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 5,182 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Wednesday, taking back most of Tuesday’s losses as some support was uncovered to the downside.
Mixed Midwestern weather forecasts over the next week were somewhat supportive, with cooler temperatures expected to slow crop development. However, some much needed rain should also help yields.
Canada’s soybean crop was estimated at 6.2 million tonnes – a one million tonne drop from the previous year as yields and acres were down.
CORN was higher on the day, also recovering from earlier losses.
Canada’s corn crop was pegged at 13.6 million tonnes, which was down slightly from the previous year as increased acres mostly compensated for a reduction in average yields.
U.S. ethanol production increased to 1.038 million barrels per day in the latest weekly report, up by 15,000 barrels. However, stocks of the renewable fuel tightened by 385,000 barrels.
WHEAT futures were mostly lower on Wednesday, with the biggest losses in spring wheat.
Total Canadian wheat production for this year was forecast at 31.25 million tonnes by Statistics Canada, which would be down by a million tonnes from the previous year. Losses in durum and winter wheat accounted for all of the reduction, with spring wheat actually up by 1.2 million tonnes, to 25.1 million.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 85 cents at US$55.78 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.18 cents, down from 75.37 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3301.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.
Canola Nov 19 447.90s +1.50 +0.34%
Canola Jan 20 455.80s +1.50 +0.33%
Canola Mar 20 463.10s +1.60 +0.35%
Canola May 20 469.70s +1.60 +0.34%
Canola Jul 20 476.30s +1.80 +0.38%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybean Sep 19 852-6s +6-4 +0.77%
Soybean Nov 19 865-6s +6-4 +0.76%
Soybean Jan 20 879-0s +6-0 +0.69%
Soybean Mar 20 892-0s +5-6 +0.65%
Soybean May 20 902-6s +5-4 +0.61%
Soybean Meal Sep 19 294.0s +2.5 +0.86%
Soybean Meal Oct 19 296.1s +2.5 +0.85%
Soybean Meal Dec 19 299.7s +2.7 +0.91%
Soybean Oil Sep 19 28.11s +0.10 +0.36%
Soybean Oil Oct 19 28.24s +0.10 +0.36%
Soybean Oil Dec 19 28.45s +0.10 +0.35%
Corn Sep 19 362-6s +5-6 +1.61%
Corn Dec 19 371-0s +4-6 +1.30%
Corn Mar 20 381-6s +4-0 +1.06%
Corn May 20 389-2s +3-2 +0.84%
Corn Jul 20 396-0s +3-0 +0.76%
Oats Sep 19 254-0s -2-2 -0.88%
Oats Dec 19 264-6s -2-2 -0.84%
Oats Mar 20 269-0s -2-2 -0.83%
Oats May 20 268-6s -2-2 -0.83%
Oats Jul 20 270-0s -2-2 -0.83%
Wheat Sep 19 472-2s -1-4 -0.32%
Wheat Dec 19 475-2s -1-4 -0.31%
Wheat Mar 20 480-6s -1-0 -0.21%
Wheat May 20 483-4s -0-6 -0.15%
Wheat Jul 20 486-2s -0-6 -0.15%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 19 487-4s -6-6 -1.37%
Spring Wheat Dec 19 505-4s -5-4 -1.08%
Spring Wheat Mar 20 520-0s -4-2 -0.81%
Spring Wheat May 20 529-4s -4-2 -0.80%
Spring Wheat Jul 20 539-0s -4-4 -0.83%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 392-2s -0-4 -0.13%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 404-2s -0-4 -0.12%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 418-6s -1-2 -0.30%
Hard Red Wheat May 20 429-0s -0-6 -0.17%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 20 438-0s -1-2 -0.28%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Aug 19 105.075s +0.325 +0.31%
Live Cattle Oct 19 99.200s -0.575 -0.58%
Live Cattle Dec 19 104.075s -0.725 -0.69%
Feeder Cattle Aug 19 138.750s +0.200 +0.14%
Feeder Cattle Sep 19 132.850s -0.925 -0.69%
Feeder Cattle Oct 19 131.625s -0.875 -0.66%
Lean Hogs Oct 19 63.500s +0.275 +0.43%
Lean Hogs Dec 19 63.700s +0.800 +1.27%
Lean Hogs Feb 20 71.225s +1.125 +1.60%
