WINNIPEG, (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts finished slightly lower on Wednesday, after a session that had good amount of fluctuations either side of steady.
Some direction came from the Chicago soy complex, which finished lower, but was also switching between green and red throughout the day.
Pressure also came from the slowly proceeding Prairie harvest and from farmer selling. However, the delays to getting the crop in the bin have provided support.
An analyst noted canola has returned to being range-bound, similar to the situation during the summer. He expects bids to remain so at least until the New Year.
Read Also
Feed Grains Weekly: Price likely to keep stepping back
As the harvest in southern Alberta presses on, a broker said that is one of the factors pulling feed prices lower in the region. Darcy Haley, vice-president of Ag Value Brokers in Lethbridge, added that lower cattle numbers in feedlots, plentiful amounts of grass for cattle to graze and a lacklustre export market also weighed on feed prices.
There were 26,565 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 24,382 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 17,534 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Nov 449.90 dn 1.50
Jan 459.60 dn 1.10
Mar 469.00 dn 1.00
May 477.50 dn 1.00
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were lower on Wednesday, looking for a clear direction.
United States/China trade talks on Phase 1 of their partial agreement hit a snag. China is reportedly balking at its promise to purchase US$50 billion in U.S. agricultural products. The deal was to be signed during the APEC conference in Santiago, Chile Nov. 16 to 17. However, the summit has now been cancelled due to mass demonstrations in Santiago. A spokesperson for the Trump administration said the signing of the deal could be moved to a different location.
As widely expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by a quarter of a point, from 1.75 to 1.50 per cent. Following the announcement, the U.S. stock markets edged lower while the U.S. dollar gained strength.
Wet conditions have continued to delay the U.S. harvest with snow in the Western Corn Belt and Northern Plains and rain in the Eastern Corn Belt. The USDA reminded farmers to file a Notice of Loss with their insurance provider and to request more time to bring the crop in.
There is speculation the carryout for U.S. soybeans could dip under 400 million bushels, due to smaller production and stronger demand. The forecast carryout in the USDA’s October supply and demand report was estimated to 460 million bushels.
Rabobank estimated the combined effects of African swine fever in China and the U.S./China trade war has cost U.S. farmers approximately US$1.50 to US$2.50 on a bushel of soybeans, according to a FarmLead report.
The daily price limit on soybeans will change from 65 cents to 60 cents effective Nov. 1.
Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA weekly export sales report, market predictions are for soybean exports of 500,000 to 1.1 million tonnes. Expectations for soymeal are 100,000 to 250,000 tonnes and soyoil between zero to 24,000 tonnes.
CORN futures were higher on Wednesday, as more than half of this year’s harvest remains in the field with cold, wet weather on the way.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration stated ethanol production was up by more than 1 million barrels per days, as of Oct. 25. However, ethanol stocks were down by 265,000 barrels at nearly 21.1 million for a two-year low.
Trade predictions for corn exports were 400,000 to 600,000 tonnes.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will host a public hearing today in Ann Arbor, Mich. to discuss the Trump administration’s biofuels plan for 2020. It’s expected that representatives the oil and corn industries will be quite vocal in their positions.
WHEAT futures were steady to lower on Wednesday in the face of stiff global competition.
A survey conducted by Bloomberg found U.S. farmers could be set to plant the fewest winter wheat acres in 110 years at 31.118 million. That would be down from the 31.159 million planted last year. The lowest on record was 29.196 million in 1909.
Market predictions for wheat export sales were 200,000 to 500,000 tonnes.
Russia has seen its wheat exports decline this year, in part due to a stronger ruble against the U.S. dollar. Exports were down 11 per cent behind last year while the price is 12 per cent higher.
The latest estimate for Australia’s 2019 wheat crop came in at 16.8 million tonnes, which would be a 10-year low. Drought has severely cut production estimates from the expected 19.0 million to 20.0 million tonnes.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down 48 cents at US$55.06 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US76.03 cents, down from 76.48 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3152.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.
Canola Nov 19 449.90s -1.50 -0.33%
Canola Jan 20 459.60s -1.10 -0.24%
Canola Mar 20 469.00s -1.00 -0.21%
Canola May 20 477.50s -1.00 -0.21%
Canola Jul 20 484.50s -0.70 -0.14%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybean Nov 19 916-0s -2-2 -0.25%
Soybean Jan 20 930-4s -3-0 -0.32%
Soybean Mar 20 943-4s -2-6 -0.29%
Soybean May 20 955-0s -2-6 -0.29%
Soybean Jul 20 965-2s -3-0 -0.31%
Soybean Meal Dec 19 302.2s -0.8 -0.26%
Soybean Meal Jan 20 304.8s -0.8 -0.26%
Soybean Meal Mar 20 308.5s -0.8 -0.26%
Soybean Oil Dec 19 30.98s -0.02 -0.06%
Soybean Oil Jan 20 31.20s -0.02 -0.06%
Soybean Oil Mar 20 31.48s unch unch
Corn Dec 19 390-6s +4-4 +1.17%
Corn Mar 20 399-4s +3-4 +0.88%
Corn May 20 405-2s +2-4 +0.62%
Corn Jul 20 410-4s +1-6 +0.43%
Corn Sep 20 403-0s +0-4 +0.12%
Oats Dec 19 296-6s -3-6 -1.25%
Oats Mar 20 293-4s -4-4 -1.51%
Oats May 20 292-2s -5-2 -1.76%
Oats Jul 20 290-2s -5-4 -1.86%
Oats Sep 20 281-6s -5-2 -1.83%
Wheat Dec 19 509-2s -2-2 -0.44%
Wheat Mar 20 515-0s -2-4 -0.48%
Wheat May 20 519-6s -2-6 -0.53%
Wheat Jul 20 524-4s -2-6 -0.52%
Wheat Sep 20 532-0s -2-6 -0.51%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 19 523-4s -2-2 -0.43%
Spring Wheat Mar 20 538-6s -2-2 -0.42%
Spring Wheat May 20 548-6s -2-0 -0.36%
Spring Wheat Jul 20 556-6s -1-2 -0.22%
Spring Wheat Sep 20 564-4s -1-2 -0.22%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 418-2s -0-6 -0.18%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 430-4s -1-0 -0.23%
Hard Red Wheat May 20 439-2s -1-4 -0.34%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 20 447-6s -2-0 -0.44%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 20 457-6s -2-0 -0.44%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Oct 19 113.375s +0.025 +0.02%
Live Cattle Dec 19 118.300s +1.475 +1.26%
Live Cattle Feb 20 123.100s +1.125 +0.92%
Feeder Cattle Oct 19 146.025s +0.600 +0.41%
Feeder Cattle Nov 19 147.875s +2.400 +1.65%
Feeder Cattle Jan 20 144.800s +3.200 +2.26%
Lean Hogs Dec 19 65.775s +1.450 +2.25%
Lean Hogs Feb 20 73.275s +0.650 +0.90%
Lean Hogs Apr 20 79.575s +0.425 +0.54%
