WINNIPEG, (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts dropped on Thursday, likely due to short covering.
Bids remained steady until about an hour after the release of the United States Department of Agriculture’s October supply and demand report. With the report, Chicago soybeans finished steady to lower, with a small increase for soyoil and a significant drop for soymeal.
That USDA report pegged Canadian canola production at 19.5 million tonnes, for a drop of 600,000 tonnes from last month’s estimate.
The cold front that brought snow and freezing temperatures to the Prairies this week, has been dumping snow on Manitoba today. Depending on the location in the province, forecast amounts range from 20 to 50 centimetres.
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“When you look at the weather here, and in the U.S., you wonder why the market isn’t skyrocketing?” said one perplexed analyst.
In Alberta and Saskatchewan the cold front has been replaced by drier conditions with temperatures in the mid-single digits.
The Canadian dollar was higher at mid-afternoon Thursday at 75.20 U.S. cents, after closing yesterday at 75.05.
There were 40,156 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 39,086 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 35,308 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Nov 459.50 dn 3.80
Jan 468.20 dn 3.60
Mar 476.90 dn 3.50
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were steady to lower on Thursday following the release of the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) supply and demand report for October. Bids had been prior to the release of the report.
In that report, the USDA cut U.S. soybean yields by one bushel per acre (BPA) to now 46.9 BPA. That lowered production by 83 million bushels to now 3.467 billion bushels. Also, ending stocks were revised to 460 million bushels with a cut of 180 million.
U.S./China trade talks began today in Washington with the possibility of a partial trade deal now on the table. China wants to U.S. to at least delay a five per cent tariff hike that’s currently scheduled to take effect on Oct. 15. The U.S. is reportedly set to offer a currency pact in return along with negotiations on core issues to be scheduled later on. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with China’s lead negotiator, Vice-Premier Liu Hu on Friday.
The USDA released its weekly export sales report on Thursday and soybean net sales amounted 2.09 million tonnes with more than 56 per cent purchased by China. The total sales were slightly above the top end of trade expectations.
Also in the export sales report, soymeal net sales came to 364,700 tonnes, which exceeded trade predictions. Soyoil net sales of 1,200 tonnes were well below market guesses.
This morning, the USDA announced a private sale of 398,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China, which are to be delivered this marketing year.
CONAB has projected Brazil’s soybean production to increase from 115.03 million tonnes in 2018/19 to 120.39 million in 2019/20.
CORN futures dropped on Thursday, due the USDA’s estimates not being in line with trade expectations.
In the supply and demand report, the USDA upped its corn yields to 168.4 BPA, rather than cutting it as the markets predicted. Estimated production is projected to reach 13.78 billion bushels as harvested average was trimmed to 81.8 million acres.
Export sales of corn at 284,500 tonnes were far below market predictions, according to the USDA’s latest weekly report.
The USDA reported Brazil’s 2018/19 corn production hit a record 101.0 million tonnes, which was an increase of 23 per cent the previous year due to above average yields. This year’s estimate is for another crop of 101.0 million tonnes, but on more acres with normal yields.
Meanwhile in contrast, CONAB’s forecast said Brazil’s corn production is to slip from 100.05 million tonnes in 2018/19 to 98.39 million tonnes in 2019/20.
WHEAT futures were weaker on Thursday, also due to the supply and demand report.
The USDA increased its estimate for wheat ending stocks to 1.04 billion bushels, which is up by 29 million from September. Wheat production was lowered slightly to 1.96 billion bushels, with 28.5 per cent as spring wheat.
The USDA reported net sales of wheat amounted to 521,900 tonnes. That was a 59 per cent jump from the previous week and a 38 per cent above the four-week average.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 96 cents at US$53.55 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.22 cents, down from 75.05 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3294.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.
Canola Nov 19 459.50s -3.80 -0.82%
Canola Jan 20 468.20s -3.60 -0.76%
Canola Mar 20 476.90s -3.50 -0.73%
Canola May 20 484.40s -3.20 -0.66%
Canola Jul 20 490.00s -3.10 -0.63%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybean Nov 19 923-4s -0-2 -0.03%
Soybean Jan 20 937-4s -0-4 -0.05%
Soybean Mar 20 949-4s -0-2 -0.03%
Soybean May 20 959-0s -0-4 -0.05%
Soybean Jul 20 968-4s -0-2 -0.03%
Soybean Meal Oct 19 304.1s -1.3 -0.43%
Soybean Meal Dec 19 307.8s -1.9 -0.61%
Soybean Meal Jan 20 310.1s -1.9 -0.61%
Soybean Oil Oct 19 29.70s +0.07 +0.24%
Soybean Oil Dec 19 29.78s +0.07 +0.24%
Soybean Oil Jan 20 30.01s +0.07 +0.23%
Corn Dec 19 380-2s -14-0 -3.55%
Corn Mar 20 391-4s -14-0 -3.45%
Corn May 20 397-4s -13-2 -3.23%
Corn Jul 20 402-2s -12-2 -2.96%
Corn Sep 20 400-4s -4-6 -1.17%
Oats Dec 19 285-6s +1-2 +0.44%
Oats Mar 20 284-4s unch unch
Oats May 20 285-4s +0-4 +0.18%
Oats Jul 20 286-2s +1-0 +0.35%
Oats Sep 20 285-6s -0-4 -0.17%
Wheat Dec 19 493-0s -7-2 -1.45%
Wheat Mar 20 499-6s -7-2 -1.43%
Wheat May 20 505-2s -6-6 -1.32%
Wheat Jul 20 510-0s -6-2 -1.21%
Wheat Sep 20 517-6s -6-2 -1.19%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 19 535-2s -6-4 -1.20%
Spring Wheat Mar 20 549-0s -6-4 -1.17%
Spring Wheat May 20 558-2s -6-4 -1.15%
Spring Wheat Jul 20 565-6s -6-6 -1.18%
Spring Wheat Sep 20 573-2s -7-0 -1.21%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 403-2s -10-0 -2.42%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 416-4s -9-6 -2.29%
Hard Red Wheat May 20 427-0s -9-2 -2.12%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 20 436-6s -9-0 -2.02%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 20 447-4s -8-6 -1.92%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle (Pit) Oct 19 108.725s +0.250 +0.23%
Live Cattle (Pit) Dec 19 111.425s +0.250 +0.22%
Live Cattle (Pit) Feb 20 117.275s -0.025 -0.02%
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Oct 19 144.300s -0.200 -0.14%
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Nov 19 144.125s -0.125 -0.09%
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Jan 20 140.425s +0.900 +0.65%
Lean Hogs (Pit) Oct 19 62.400s -0.400 -0.64%
Lean Hogs (Pit) Dec 19 68.475s -1.000 -1.44%
Lean Hogs (Pit) Feb 20 75.875s -0.075 -0.10%
