Canola falls on weaker soy, stronger loonie

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Published: January 15, 2015

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Canola futures edged lower on Thursday on what was a mostly down day in crop markets.

But the losses in canola were not as bad as in soybeans, where the March contract was down 1.8 percent.

March canola fell almost 0.6 percent, weighed down by falling soybeans and a stronger loonie.

Corn also dipped, and only spring wheat edged higher while Kansas and Chicago wheat were lower.

Falling crude oil, commodity weakness and a rising U.S. dollar all weighed on U.S. crop markets

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Soybeans were pressured when the U.S. monthly soybean crush report for December came in lower than expected.

The pace of the crush was the second highest on record, but at 165.383 million bushels was a little less than the 166.9 million bu. that traders had expected.

A record South American soybean crop is expected but centre-west areas of Brazil are getting dry. The rest of the soybean region is in good shape.

Falling soy meal also weighed on soybeans. In the cash market, processors slashed their basis offers after last-minute deliveries against the expiring Chicago Board of Trade January soymeal contract illustrated the easy availability of supplies, Reuters reported.

But the crush report was a little supportive of soy oil. It said the oil yield from seed from this year’s harvest was below expectations. The stronger soy oil futures price supported canola, limiting its fall. End users of canola are believed to have most of their immediate needs met and are not chasing the market higher.

Fall soybeans spilled over into corn but the losses were limited by strong weekly export sales. At about 819,000 tonnes they were more than expected.

Ethanol futures extended declines to the lowest levels in about 9 ½ years on large supplies, Reuters said.

Informa Economics raised its forecast for U.S. 2015 corn plantings to 88.612 million acres from 88.01 million last month and trimmed its forecast for U.S. soybean plantings to 88.032 million from 88.78 million last month.

Today’s news about wheat was mostly negative. Weekly U.S. export sales were near the low end of analysts’ expectations.

Strategie Grains raised its estimate of European Union 2014-15 soft wheat exports to 29.3 million tonnes, up 2.1 million from its previous forecast.

And there are forecasts for beneficial moisture in the U.S. Plains wheat belt next week.

Reuters reported Informa Economics projected U.S. 2015-16 all-wheat production at 2.151 billion bushels, up from 2.026 billion in 2014-15.

The firm adopted USDA’s winter wheat seedings figure of 40.452 million acres, projected seedings of durum wheat at 1.971 million acres and put “other” spring wheat seedings at 12.396 million acres.

That would be a big increase in durum area.

In 2014 American farmers deed 1.398 million acres of durum and 13.025 million acres of spring wheat.

ICE barley futures jolted to life today with 25 trades in March and May, creating a total of 50 open interest positions.

That is still paltry compared to March canola’s 97,657 positions.

March barley rose $9 to settle at $191 a tonne.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York down $2.23 to US$46.25 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US83.81 cents, up from 83.63 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.1932.

Switzerland’s surprising decision to abandon its more than three-year-old cap on the franc hit global markets, Reuters reported. The move in particular benefited the bullion price, which jumped to a four-month high. Shares of gold miners climbed nearly six percent.

The TSX composite fell 42.61 points or 0.30 percent to 14,041.82.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 102.11 points, or 0.59 percent, to 17,324.98.

The S&P 500 lost 18.52 points, or 0.92 percent, to 1,992.75.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 68.50 points, or 1.48 percent, to 4,570.82.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Mar 2015       451.40       -2.60       -0.57%

Canola May 2015       445.90       -2.60       -0.58%

Canola Jul 2015       439.40       -4.10       -0.92%

Canola Nov 2015       425.20       -3.80       -0.89%

Canola Jan 2016       428.30       -1.90       -0.44%

 

Milling Wheat Mar 2015       215.00       +1.00       +0.47%

Milling Wheat May 2015       218.00       +1.00       +0.46%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015       220.00       unch       0.00%

 

Durum Wheat Mar 2015       361.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2015       351.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015       341.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Mar 2015       191.00       +9.00       +4.95%

Barley May 2015       193.00       +9.00       +4.89%

Barley Jul 2015       195.00       +9.00       +4.84%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2015       991       -18.25       -1.81%

Soybeans May 2015       997.25       -17.25       -1.70%

Soybeans Jul 2015       1003.25       -16.75       -1.64%

Soybeans Aug 2015       1002.75       -16.5       -1.62%

Soybeans Sep 2015       988.25       -15.5       -1.54%

Soybeans Nov 2015       976.5       -14.75       -1.49%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 2015       326.7       -8.8       -2.62%

Soybean Meal May 2015       322.2       -8       -2.42%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015       322.4       -7.4       -2.24%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 2015       32.99       +0.17       +0.52%

Soybean Oil May 2015       33.13       +0.18       +0.55%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015       33.3       +0.19       +0.57%

 

Corn Mar 2015       380       -1       -0.26%

Corn May 2015       387.25       -1.25       -0.32%

Corn Jul 2015       393.5       -1.5       -0.38%

Corn Sep 2015       399.5       -1.25       -0.31%

Corn Dec 2015       407.5       -1       -0.24%

 

Oats Mar 2015       281.75       -1       -0.35%

Oats May 2015       285       unch       0.00%

Oats Jul 2015       289.75       unch       0.00%

Oats Sep 2015       291.75       unch       0.00%

Oats Dec 2015       291       -1.25       -0.43%

 

Wheat Mar 2015       532.75       -5       -0.93%

Wheat May 2015       535.75       -5       -0.92%

Wheat Jul 2015       540       -5.25       -0.96%

Wheat Sep 2015       547.5       -5       -0.90%

Wheat Dec 2015       559.25       -5       -0.89%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2015       581       +0.5       +0.09%

Spring Wheat May 2015       588.25       +1       +0.17%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015       596.5       +1       +0.17%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015       603.75       +1.5       +0.25%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015       614       +3.5       +0.57%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015       573       -2       -0.35%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015       576       -2.5       -0.43%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015       580.5       -2.75       -0.47%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015       591.5       -2.75       -0.46%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015       605.5       -2.75       -0.45%

 

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