Canola falls as investors flee risk

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Published: August 4, 2011

Commodity and stock markets fell sharply on Thursday as investor worries about the weakness of the U.S. economy caused a selling spree.

November canola closed at $559.50 per tonne, down $5.70.

All major indexes on Wall Street fell more than four percent, the TSX composite fell 3.4 percent and oil in New York fell 5.8 percent.

Pessimism is growing that recovery for the U.S. economy is a long way off. Also, investors are worried that the sovereign debt crisis that has plagued Greece will spread to other, larger European countries.

Investors sought safety in U.S. Treasuries, helping to lift the U.S. dollar. The buck was also supported as Japan and Switzerland took steps to lower their currencies to help their export industries.

Chicago crop futures were caught in the market-wide downdraft. Weakness also came from milder weather in the corn belt and a private corn crop estimate that bucked the recent trend of lower yield forecasts.

Informa Economics put corn production at 13.353 billion bushels, a record high and pegged the corn yield per acre at 158 bu.

Other estimates this week have put the yield at six to eight bu. less than that.

U.S. Department of Agriculture will update its forecast Aug. 11.

The forecast for rain in the Midwest over the next few days added pressure on soybeans, which set their yield in August.

November soybeans fell about 1.8 percent while canola fell about one percent thanks to the offsetting effect of the weaker Canadian dollar.

The Saskatchewan Agriculture crop report said recent heat helped advance crops and farmers in some areas of the province are desiccating pulses and swathing mustard, canola and fall cereals.

Canola Nov 11        $559.50, down $5.70

Canola Jan 12        $567.90, down $5.70

Canola Mar 12        $572.40, down $6.30

Canola May 12        $576.40, down $7.10

The previous day’s best basis was $6 over the November contract according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.

The July contract’s 14-day Relative Strength Index was 45. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.

Western Barley Oct 11        $205, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans Aug 11        $13.3925, down 24.75

Soybeans Sep 11        $13.3625, down 27.5

Soybeans Nov 11        $13.4525, down 27.75

Corn Sep 11        $6.9375, down 12.25

Corn Dec 11        $7.015, down 11.5

Oats Sep 11        $3.315, down 14.0

Oats Dec 11        $3.43, down 13.5

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Sep 11        $8.2325, down 21.5

Spring Wheat Dec 11        $8.315, down 21.0

Spring Wheat Mar 12        $8.425, down 21.75

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York plunged $5.30 to $86.63 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0239 US, down from $1.0380 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 97.67 cents Can.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index unofficially ended down 435.90 points, or 3.4 percent, at 12,380.13.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index unofficially closed down 60.17 points or 4.77 percent at 1,200.17.

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