Canola edges lower in light trade

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Published: August 10, 2010

Canola futures spent most of the day higher, but closed lower in light trade.

Canola harvest has begun in a few places but some fields are still flowering.

There was little news to trade on. Market players are waiting for the Aug. 20 Statistics Canada production forecast.

Elevator company hedging to cover their buying from farmers added downward pressure to canola prices.

Outside markets provided little direction.

Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin last week announced a halt to grain exports until the end of December. Then another official said the ban would be reviewed after harvest. Putin on Monday said the ban could be extended beyond December.

The drought continues in Russia and could limit the amount of seeding done this fall.

Independent grain analyst SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat crop to 43.5 million from 47.5 million last month.

Last year the country produced 61.7 million tonnes.

SovEcon dropped its estimate of Russian exports to three million tonnes from 11 million last month. Last crop year it exported 18.6 million tonnes.

In Winnipeg, November canola fell 90 cents per tonne to $466.40 on 4,609 trades.

The January contract fell 50 cents to $470.50 on 128 trades.

The previous day’s best basis was $18 per tonne under the November contract in the par region, according to the Winnipeg ICE Futures daily report.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index for November was 68 according to BarChart.com. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.41 cents US, up from 97.34 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0266.

Winnipeg October barley was revised up $3 to $163 and December rose $15 to $175. The changes reflect recent increased grain prices. There was no trade.

Chicago August soybeans fell 10.5 cents to $10.485 US per bushel. September fell 4.5 cents to $10.345. New-crop November rose 1.50 cents to $10.35.

September oats rose 0.25 cents to $2.7975 per bu. December oats rose 0.25 cents to $2.9225 per bu.

In New York, crude oil for September delivery rose 78 cents to $81.48 US per barrel.

The USDA kept its rating for corn and soybeans steady, surprising traders who expected a one percentage point drop because of heat.

Corn is 71 percent good to excellent (68 percent last year) and soybeans are 66 percent good to excellent (66 percent last year).

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